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You don't say :) Anyway, I was doing some homework over the weekend - info.goldavenue.com seems to be a very informative site I think I "get" the CB gold leasing now - it seems identical to the stock loan business. 1) Long term holders (CBs) lease gold to earn a carry yield 2) The...

Thanks, I did read about the JP Morgan short position as well. Might I ask which sites you find the most useful for gold information? What have you seen in terms of CB action on gold? Manipulation of foreign currencies by foreign CBs is well known, but I am not as familiar with the framework...

Japan is 75% dependant on Middle Eastern crude for its energy needs and has no significant navy to protect its interest in the flow of oil from the Gulf of Hormuz to Japan. The US is 13% dependant on Middle Eastern crude for its energy needs and has a fleet in the Pacific, an army in the...

random trader, glad to hear your comments! I am trying to do the same thing - pick out reversals using volume as a signal for hysteria. I have also found that this strategy requires wide stops, usually against conventional wisdom - eg 3 pt stp to catch approx 2 pt. I was trading it with...

Well ... the railroad boom made landowners rich (value of real estate is a strong function of connectivity to other population centers) and the automobile boom made the oilmen rich. A lot about China is smoke and mirros, but one thing is true : China is about rapid industrialisation, just...

My sentiments exactly rodden. I have read about the rounds of "begger thy neighbour" games played by nations hurrying to devalue their currencies in the 1930s. The Snow and Bush tours this year of Asia is just a naked attempt to coordinate global macro policy to give the US dollar a soft...

Hope you don't mind if I reply to you in this forum. I'm in the futures. Please share any thoughts you do have on the relative merits of choosing between the physicals and the futures. I figured that you pay the storage cost and forward in the futures, but you will also have to "pay" that...

Thanks for posing this question Blackguard. Is there anything unusual to consider if you want to trade US markets outside of the US? ie, is there extra paperwork? are there any withholding taxes? (can't imagine so, still) anything out of the ordinary? I'm a non-US national trading...

I was hoping to ferret out some informed opinions on the whys and wherefores of the central banks in the gold game, but it seems like mentioning gold is like ringing the bell in a Pavlovian experiment. Everyone starts going start raving mad and its a war between libertarian gold bugs and...

Perhaps I gave the wrong impression when I suggested that there are forces keeping the price of gold down. Far from being a conspirarcy theorist, I am merely recognizing the fact that the market for gold is like the market for a closely held stock - a few key players hold a lot of inventory...

You are correct. But then again, in an inflationary environment, an asset does not need to generate wealth to appreciate, it just has to have a fixed supply :) Anyway, I think the main argument for why gold might appreciate is not that the world is suddenly going to turn paranoid in a spate...

You should take a look at the Banque de France piece I attached earlier - it gave me insight as to how CBs view gold. Interestingly enough, the French central banker pointed out that historically the liquidity of gold is proportional to disaster, whereas the liquidity of fiat is highly inversely...

Thanks. I started following gold in May and am happy to see the technicals hold up. Since gold is a market that is highly subject to manipulation, I'm wondering if anyone can shed any insight on the reasons why Central Banks will want to keep gold down. I don't quite buy the argument that...

Banque de France comments on gold circa 2000

James Turk fear index

I was just doing some research on gold and it is very hard to separate fact from fiction, so I wanted to hear other people's thoughts on gold. Maybe we can share observations and learn something from each other. I'll just kick off with some observations culled from the web : 1) Demand...

I'm pessimistic about the SPX - there is a good chart that's in Schillers book where the inverse of PE at the beginning of each decade is plotted against next 10 yr returns. The plots from history all point towards a strong positive relationship - the higher a PE you start out with at the...

It has been instructive day trading and keeping an online journal. I've realised that I need to go back to the drawing board and sketch out clearer rules on entry and exit, so I can fine tune them through the journal. That would be a better way to use the journal to make progress...

How about speculation on where the shift in investment leadership will be? Marc Faber talks about this quite a bit, eg commodities 1970-80, US Govt Bonds 1980-1985(?), Japanese equities 1985-89, Nasdaq 1990-2000 His point is that an astute investor could have done very well just by making...

I guess the market rewards patience ... it has turned down to 1037.00 after I closed out my short at flat, 1039.25. My original profit target was 1037.75. It did get there, but I suppose in the afternoon session, momentum slows down and I should give the trade more time. I am going to...