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acrary is right I have been at an IB for years too.

Guys, Please do yourself a favour and do some serious research on gold. It has characteristics very unlike other markets. 1) The supply of short inventory is virtually unlimited. 2) It has little industrial use (30% industrial / 70% monetary) 3) The central banks hold 23% of the...

Here's my recipe 1. Double major in mathematics and something offbeat - like English or Medieval Studies or History of Art. 2. Get into at an Ivy 3. Take a minor in CS, learn coding 4. In your spare time, trade in your own account (talk to your parents about it - ask them for $$)...

I am by NO means an expert on systems development, but I like to see smoothness when I adjust parameters. eg. if a 3pt STP has a 50% sucess rate and 30% ROA, then a 2.5pt STP should have, say a 40% sucess rate and a 25% ROA. In theory, you should see gradiations across your results as you...

Would AVSR be a name in which MMs try to trade their inventory positions? Today's tape seemed to be printed to suggest a puke in the afternoon, which shook out a lot of people who were long at 2.90. My theory is that the MMs were selling from inventory in the AM. By printing a down tape in...

jb, I agree with your generational thesis on institutional memory. I also agree with the death of "cult of equity" thesis. Short public mutual fund corporates could be a good trade. I'm not sure gold will be the beneficiary of the inevitable asset outflow from equities, but if it is (ie...

Interesting. Wouldn't you say that's indicative of a top that's about to meet a nasty tumble? I do know that the HK property market corrected more than 50% from its peak. If you were levered 4 to 1, that's a 200% loss if you held on. Ouch. My only indicator for real estate is the New York...

That's not true. It's no coincidence that wealthy economies also have a high mkt cap as % of GDP, ie how much of their economic production is capitalized (ie given a present valuation) by the markets. If you go back to classic invisible hand and the theory that prices serve to guide...

Thanks for the good thoughts Laz (and Hollywood!) Got some replies here. (as I try to flip my gold futures ... take my offer dammit) I think physical production is in the 2000 tonnes to 3000 tonnes range, call it 2500 tonnes. Clearly as price increases, so will production - in that...

Terrorist Network alert! Terrorist Network alert! Terrorist Network alert! :) :) :) But seriously, gold is a much favoured form of money by the illegal economy. I think the WSJ ran an article a while ago abt drug dealers in the US who cast power drills and hammers out of gold to send back...

There are a lot of arguments flying around, but let's take a page from history. Has there EVER been a case of a bubble reflating? I know there was a Kuwaiti bubble that was pricked in 1977, reflated and pricked again in 1980 to disasterous effect (the market shut down and all securities...

I did some work looking into gold. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php? s=&threadid=23790 I must say that the more I dig into gold, the more I feel that the gold story is more complicated than most people make it out to be. Gold has a diminishing role to play in the future...

The stock is super thin as you mentioned, thin enough that I have to carefully watch for volume to come in before I can make a move, and I'm not trading that much! Incidentally, it actually gave me a good insight as to how the gorillas feel when they trade :) What I don't get is how 71,000...

The "hedonist" adjustments is one of Jim Roger's favourite brickbats these days. I've heard him raise his hackles on that topic quite a few times this year! The link between real estate and capital misallocation (ie credit fueled bubbles) you pointed out is one that is well understood within...

Geez. I have Ivy League degrees in Mathematics and Economics and I was never so arrogant. I did almost complete a degree in Art History too actually, but a job on the Street intervened! Perhaps you should show some respect for the market and for financial history, otherwise the only money you...

I've been trading in AVSR recently and have noticed something interesting. I am a novice at microcap trading, so please excuse with my ignorance. On Nov 6 the market cleared 71,000 shares between $2.44 and $2.55. It then proceeded to plunge to $2.33 and $2.32 on 400 shares. It came back...

Gee ... the Fed target rate has no impact on the economy? Not sure where you get your economics from, but maybe if you spent some time in the Treasury bond markets you might see things differently. FF tgt guides Fed intervention in the overnight liquidity markets. Fed intervention in the...

Don't know if you are a fan of Jim Rogers, but I read this in his site at the beginning of this year :) Your views are in good company.

I beg to differ - I don't think that's the way the world actually works. People ought to be rational optimizing agents, sweating over their mental abacus about how much to save and how much to spend, but I think the reality is that they make haphazard decisions all the time in this regard. I...

I think this issue gained recent media attention with the discovery of truckloads of USD in the vaults of Baghdad.