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No ER trades today. I couldn't find enough edge in any of them. IMO NVDA is fairly priced at 7.2% Implied Move

NVDA today. Whats the play?

I was a bit busy this morning so I put a limit order on NTAP to fill @ 2.90 this morning. I could have done much better here. Something I have to work on is microstructure. +58% today. I'll say this one more time, I am using log returns here so in this case LN(2.9/5.2) = 58%

@Kevin Schmit can you explain why the impulse response function (IRF) is important in pairs trading? Why do we care about how a shock in Y1 affects Y2? I am under the assumption that I want to know when Y1 (the error correcting leg) is too far from equilibrium. There were a few papers on the OU...

Thanks! Yes, day trading options.

ouuuuu...I am not to sure what to say IC. I heard sports betting a bit easier to win at :p

76% over the last 8 months. This is all while making so many careless (expensive) mistakes and trying to learn new strategies as I go. I would consider myself a day trader. Next 12 months will almost certainly be better. If you are an active member on ET and @raVar has not blocked you yet or...

thanks .sigma! NTAP hardly moved! Did you hop on board?

Also if any of you are looking for a long vol play. WIX is not a bad idea. Its is slightly underpriced on my end (more research required)

Short NTAP synthetic butterfly 48/60 60/72 @ 5.20 Most of the large moves happen in November for NTAP which is why the vol gauge is a bit lower. I am in small.

Closed out SWKS for a profit of 29% Lost 23% on ENR (log returns). Net PnL is up as I had more exposure to SWKS (I did not buy the wings on ENR). PnL up only slightly today. SWKS +1.63 ENR -0.50

I do have long trades. They are just not very common. How often are you long options?

Taking another 2 trades today. Will post fills when I get in (10 min) Short SWKS 82/101 101/120 synthetic fly for $6.51 Short ENR 40/45 strangle for $1.88 SWKS: ENR:

Closing both trades for a nice profit today. TSN + .70 (+15%) DHI + .84 (+27%) I will update you with new trades later on.

IMO you have 3 groups of people who are involved during an earnings event: 1) Mutual Funds/Asset managers 2) Speculators who are mis informed 3) Speculators who are smart or informed/insider traders. If a stock has a bunch of positive option skew before an earnings event, how can I try to...

Is the above data from MarketChameleon free? Would you mind explaining your logic for the iron fly structure? TBH, I don't see any juice in selling gamma on NVDA currently. You might be better off trying to find a directional edge and playing a directional fly. Dive deep into the company, if...

Thanks for the nice words. I learned a ton from that journal as well. I'll try and answer your question from your journal and this one. I have a pretty large data set and I have found that, with out any filtering, your expected value on a short straddle is about 2% of the straddle price and...

Forward Variance meaning what the implied variance will be in N amount of days (30, 60, 90..). It depends what the article is about. Is average volatility, a) average realized volatility, b) average implied volatility or c) average forward volatility? Also, comparing variance to volatility in...

Nice job keeping this guy inline. His client potential is approaching 0.