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  1. Trader13

    Going long gamma (for profit)

    Sorry for any confusion, but my request for the Twitter posts that prompted this thread was directed to the OP as only he/she would know. A little frustrating when anonymous sources are cited who have all the background details. Also note that the OP said weekly ATR's, not daily. That should...
  2. Trader13

    Going long gamma (for profit)

    There is a "sweet spot" for a ramp up in gamma which it sounds like they are targeting. That's why I'd like to read their posts, to get the full context.
  3. Trader13

    Going long gamma (for profit)

    From your description, it sounds like they are trading speed, not nominal gamma. I'd like to read their posts. What is their Twitter handles (or PM me if you prefer not to post it here for any reason).
  4. Trader13

    CL futures margin on IB

    I discussed this topic with an IB rep a few years ago and he advised me that they calculate margin in a very dynamic manner and not to rely on any static list of rates. This is especially true if you're trading bespoke spreads where there is no posted margin for your creative combo. For a...
  5. Trader13

    Spread Trading

    In this case, which measure of variance would you use?
  6. Trader13

    Probability of Touch (POT)

    I should be "careful what I ask for" because a better solution for POT is quite a bit more complex than 2*delta. I'm currently reading about one-touch barrier options where their pricing addresses this topic in a more robust way. There are some similarities to delta with differences in...
  7. Trader13

    Why hedging with Gold is Popular

    It's reasonable to have a small portion of your portfolio in gold to hedge a global Armageddon. The more interesting question is, which gold instrument do you choose? If you own ETF's or futures contracts, your hedge is potentially beyond your reach if the financial systems are down. Perhaps...
  8. Trader13

    Probability of Touch (POT)

    That certainly makes sense for skews on stocks that are pre-earnings. Probably also true for commodities with seasonal tendencies. They have a directional tilt. But for equity indexes where Puts had a positive skew over the last three years of a bull market, it's been wrong almost every day.
  9. Trader13

    Probability of Touch (POT)

    The common rule-of-thumb is that an estimate of POT for a strike is the delta of its option x 2. For example, a 25 delta OTM option has a 50% POT. When you have a steep put/call skew that is reflected in the deltas, an equivalent POT for puts and calls will be at different strike distances...
  10. Trader13

    What do you consider to be the most valuable thing you've learned from a post on ET?

    That generous leverage/margin should be used to manage risk with thoughtfully chosen hedges, not to simply inflate your position size.
  11. Trader13

    Which way? Gold.

    I'm sure you can find a lot of short setups that work during a routine market phase. My concern is tail risk for a systemic market decline. We've been in a Trump bull market for the last few years, so it's easy to become complacent and forget what a crash looks like.
  12. Trader13

    Which way? Gold.

    Ugh. I would never short Gold, Swiss Francs, or any other "risk off" market. It's akin to selling stops.
  13. Trader13

    Choosing a programmer to create custom tools: where and how

    If you really have a trading system that is consistently profitable, then you are in a small minority with "secret sauce" that you should regard as proprietary and confidential. I suggest you learn how to program it yourself. It's not that hard, especially if you already have the mental...
  14. Trader13

    Interindividual Heterogeneity of Adaptations to Resistance Training

    I suspect there are a lot of closet pill-poppers out there on a regimen of steroids or growth hormones who skew our perception of weight training and muscle growth. When I see an almost perfect specimen of whole body muscle development, rather than admiration I just say to myself "he must have...
  15. Trader13

    What Happen to Maverick74 (moderator)

    I just checked his FB page and he's not dead! In fact, he looks to be in good spirits. :) It's really not any of our business why he stopped posting. On reflection, I should not have speculated on that myself. He's smarter than any money manager I've ever listened to, so I guessed he might...
  16. Trader13

    What Happen to Maverick74 (moderator)

    I just assumed that he started trading OPM professionally and could no longer post due to regulatory restrictions. He is missed.
  17. Trader13

    Everything's correlated? :(

    Keep in mind that uncorrelated markets (i.e., price series which have a correlation coefficient near zero) will still move in the same direction half the time. This directional co-movement of 50% is more than a casual observer would imagine for "uncorrelated" markets. The foundation for your...
  18. Trader13

    Futures trader

    Don't regard futures leverage simply as a profit booster! Instead, utilize leverage for risk management by hedging your position with other thoughtfully chosen futures/options trading instruments.
  19. Trader13

    CME Futures Historical Spread Data

    Send me a PM with the date range you want (start date, end date) and I'll see if I can grab the data for you.
  20. Trader13

    Pairs Trading - Practical Considerations

    I don't think the problem in this case is that the strategy is constantly in the market. I believe the problem is the underlying premise of successful pair trading is flawed. In modern times where indexing of stocks is a major part of the trading volume, pair trading no longer works...
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