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No, that is a green swan with purple stripes and a mohawk. No such thing as a "dirty bomb that kills 250,000".

Do your own research, my time is not worthless. Here, I will waste a few more seconds of my life on you: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/11/simons-thorp-and-shannon.html As Mr. Simons put it - and this is about as specific as he would get - "Certain price patterns are nonrandom and will...

The most successful hedge fund manager of all time makes his money trading predictive patterns in the markets (from the horse's mouth) in direct contradiction to your assertions, and all you can do is complain about wikipedia? You lose. Big. Over and out. Fletch

D.E. Shaw's funds still make money and they still do quantitative modeling. So does Renaissance Technologies, who also employs an army of quantitative scientists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies "Renaissance uses computer-based models to predict price changes in...

You're invoking D.E. Shaw to support th e idea that markets are random? You are confused, sir. forbes.com: "Son of efficient-markets theorist made fortune exploiting market inefficiencies with sophisticated computer models. "...

Again, try here: http://press.princeton.edu/books/lo/ Markets are not fully random. They are largely random, but not entirely so. It's actually very easy to see with about a day's work if you know how to use a computer. Fletch

Same thing as Opie and Anthony. The show used to be funny (sometimes) when they had to dance around the dirty stuff, and their best stuff was always stuff that wasn't dirty at all. Now it's just not funny when there are no boundaries to push, no lines that they almost sort of don't cross, etc...

Uh, if you say so. You might want to get a beer with myminitrading to talk about "what they're doing" with oil prices and such. Fletch

I don't see how. All it would have taken was a news item saying Jobs was in fact under investigation for wrongdoing (which seemed possible based on earlier reports) and it would have sold off many more % points. Unless you had some kind of inside information that this was not the case, I don't...

Would have been. Big difference. Which one will outperform next? Fletch

options on futures. No insurance policy is free. fletch

Pretty funny joke. You could generate this "result" based on random walk data, and of course the maximum possible profit would actually be zero minus fees in all cases. Fletch

Absolutely. I had the same thought. Fletch

False. Try thinking for yourself for two seconds rather than digging in your heels. Quality cotton products were available at an affordable cost to increasing segments of the population after the invetion of the cotton gin, i.e., they could afford things they couldn't prior, and were by...

Technology is but one example, and there is nothing magic about it. When the cotton gin was invented, the world became more wealthy. All cotton products became cheaper to produce and higher quality, without any corresponding loss. Those machines created wealth. There are countless other...

Because the "random walk" I've seen this discussed for is a bet with outcomes +b or -b/2 units, where b is your bankroll, with probability of 1/2 in each case. Take b = 1. The EV of such a bet is: 1/2 -(1/2)(1/2) = +1/4 Fletch

This seems to be a widely held point of confusion. The expectancy of the so-called "random walk" is hugely positive. There is nothing special about making money on a +EV wager. Fletch

Yes, but they mostly work hard at the wrong things. Fletch

"That's nice. So how about those Cards?" If you try to correct or confront your friends everytime they say or do something stupid you will have no friends. Fletch

Remove all the kook-ish language, i.e., railing against the "Ministry of Truth", cut it down to two pages max, and that could be a really good letter. As it stands, it is unlikely to be taken seriously by the people that need to hear it the most. Fletch