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  1. R

    The Next Leg Down?

    My guess is that both long and shorts are going to get whipsawed for the next couple of months, with an overall underlying movement that is up, as institutions start putting their huge cash reserves back to work.
  2. R

    High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

    While the market never acts as expected, I am also looking for a run up to the 110 level on the SPY with a retracement that will form a reverse head-and shoulders which will be the beginning of a cyclical Bull market lasting a couple of years. But I do not expect new highs at this time, unless...
  3. R

    High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

    a) All talking heads are working for themselves first and their big clients second. I totally tune them out. Just looking for news that may affect longer term trends - e.g. the government is going to spend $1,000,000,000,000. b) I quit using trend indicators a long time ago. They are...
  4. R

    High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

    Translation: 1) Key support areas are holding 2) Climax selling on moderately high volume 3) Bush's incompetent administration (to an extreme that we will hopefully never revisit again - and this means Palin) is gone. 4) Oil prices will be less of a drag on corporate profits and U.S...
  5. R

    High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

    Bears and Bulls make a market. I would like to encourage all Bears to keep shorting, since I am buying like crazy and love the prices. Waiting for a large decline to buy more. Will someone sell it to me at last week's prices. I am ready.
  6. R

    High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

    The government reaction to this economic crisis is totally opposite of that of Hoover's. While Hoover's government continued to squeeze money out of the system for three years (29 - 32), the Obama administration is going to flood the system. As a result, government spending will replace consumer...
  7. R

    High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

    I've been playing this as a bottom since Oct. 10. Buying aplenty since the low set in. Have been accumulating QLD (Powershares Ultra QQQQ) like there is no tomorrow. Making very nice profits. Will continue to ride for the foreseeable future. Competency is back in government and the money is...
  8. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    Marc Faber. Very similar to my views. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=935450306
  9. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    The hypothesis that I am working on is: 1) The current market valuation is extremely cheap. Most of the current liquidation, that is driving the market down in a parabolic manner, is short-term, caused by a temporary dislocation of money from assets to treasuries. .01% on Treasuries is a good...
  10. R

    credit crunch - what exactly is the problem?

    That's just about it.
  11. R

    credit crunch - what exactly is the problem?

    The credit crunch can be defined as follows: 1) Those who are creditworthy (corp and individuals) don't want nor need to borrow. 2) Those who are not creditworthy are in deep trouble and would like to borrow, however ... 3) The banks cannot offload this junk credit anymore like they did...
  12. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    I don't think this is uncharted territory at all. It is reverse mania. :-) I'm not going crazy with greed here, but I will tell you that the NASDAQ at this price is just an incredible steal, and I am buying like mad. I am conserving money in case it goes down more, and if it does, I am going to...
  13. R

    This is was bottom

    As for me, I've been buying QLDs at 24, and it keeps rebounding off this low, with volume. It seems like daytraders who are short are having to deal with a narrower and narrower trading range, and are probably a bit concerned about how large of a herd is behind that firm market low. Still...
  14. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    I agree. I think clearly the probability of large upside at this point is greater than the probability of further large downside. However, I always accept the possibility of large short-term fluctuations that may go against my hypothesis, so I am prepared to accumulate at lower levels if...
  15. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    I am risking that the probability that we are closer to an intermediate low is much higher than the probability we are closer to an intermediate high. I'm looking for NASDAQ to retrace to 1700+ over the next few weeks. If it is on heavy volume, I am increasing my commitment. Otherwise, I will...
  16. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    This crisis and thr 1929 crisis are very similar in that they were brought on by an incredible amount leveraged debt that was encouraged by unregulated scamming of financial institutions. The BIG difference between the two scenarios, is that while the Hoover administration choked money supply...
  17. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    One thing is clear from current market action. The wave of hedge fund and mutual fund selling has temporarily ended, and the only selling is coming from the shorts themselves. And the shorts were beaten back and overwhelmed on Thursday as they crept to close to the edge of the unknown. You have...
  18. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    I agree that consumption has to increase before the market will begin to move - however, consumers are not the only ones that consume. So do governments. Governments can actually pursue unlimited consumption (by printing money) as long as they do not mind debasing cash and destroying the savings...
  19. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    Nice reversal on volume today. The shorts are raking in their profits and institutions are speeding up their purchases, while the talking heads on CNBC continue to urge the public to keep their money in their mattresses, while their pals accumulate shares. Thanks guys. A mini bull is underway...
  20. R

    How Do We Nail the Bottom?

    While it looks very scary, that is exactly how it should look near lows. We seem to be holding very firm despite an endless string of bad news. Very comforting. A test may come, but volume is coming in as the market churns. Cash on the sidelines is getting itchy, since 1% interest rates are...
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