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This is certainly more optimistic than my own hypothesis, but I am looking for a 50% run up from 7500 which would bring us to 11000. Very doable. The impetus will be a combination of historical fiscal spending (which will not cause inflation, because of the low velocity of money), leveraged...

I hope so. However, I do not think anyone is thinking about a war at this moment. Probably thinking more about how to save their precious wealth. That is the one thing that binds us all. Wealth preservation.

Fannie and Freddie default rates are actually very small compared to subprime. However, the problem was that F&F were leveraged over 120:1. Ridiculous. But this all happened under the auspices of a Republican Administration, Republican controlled legislature, and neutered government regulators...

:-) No I didn't vote for Bush. But at least the public knows now what are the consequence of having people in power who never read the paper. Remember what Palin's answer was when she was asked the question.? :-) As for sub-prime: It has been known for thousands of years that you do not lend...

I think it is a shame that Bush's administration not only presided over devastating foreign and domestic policies. However, anyone who was involved with no money down home loans was a participant, and anyone who helped off-load these loans to unsuspecting investors (overseas and domestically) is...

Well, that is what the Bulls and Bears are betting on. However, no country has ever fallen into a Depression with massive government spending. Hyperinflation yes, but not Depression. Sweden is a good model for fiscal spending that avoided deflation. Massive amounts. As I remember 20% of GDP. But...

There is plenty of re-allocation and redemptions going on. We are in a period of dislocation, which certainly is one of the hallmark's of a low. Treasuries indicate that lots of money is being parked there for the time being. But it will find its way out and most of it will be going to corporate...

I was totally out of the market until Oct. 10th. I like bargains. If I am going to take sides, I am going to side with the $1,000,000,000,000+ that the government is going to spend. I don't mind shorts who keep selling. Makes it even more of a bargain. Today I bought more at the day's lows. I...

Could be. But with the market volatility the way it is, I rather be early than late. The market action, from my perspective, is excellent. I am getting fantastic prices with nominal downside risk, (unless we really do fall into a Great Depression, which is extremely unlikely given the...

Yes, I agree. No one trusts them any more - much less the rumors that they start, which are intended to panic small and institutional investors. But now the institutions are yanking their money out and will probably get back to basics, which means the money will be sitting in Treasuries for a...

I have to say, the more I watch the daily price/volume action, the more convinced I am becoming that the Bears are out of bullets, and the bottom for the next cyclical Bull may be in. Not sure what will happen after a 50%, or so, retracement, but I continue to accumulate whenever the market...

It is far simpler than this. The hedge funds do all that they can do - legally and illegally - to make money. Spreading rumors is just part of this complex game. Ditto for GM. The execs did all that they could do to make themselves multi-millionaires. And the heck with workers, country, and all...

Hedge fund leveraging has certainly hurt the market and the country as a whole. However, their dirty work is not yet over. Now that they have sufficiently panicked the public, they are going to begin accumulating - until they are ready to sell again. Then, they are going to start leaking stuff...

From what I can tell, hedge funds redemptions have pretty much ended - probably for the foreseeable future. There are now two things that will work in the U.S. market's favor: 1) Most of what was redeemed by major institutions will find its way from short term Treasuries into the markets...

I agree. Institutions that have parked their money in .01% Treasuries can only keep it there so long. Everything that was redeemed will find its way back in some allocation mix. Currently, it seems to favor large caps (commodities are in the dog house), but it could reverse to small caps once...

True, but unlikely when the government is about to embark on a $1,000,000,000,000 spending spree. Right now, Wall Street continues to spread fear and panic (and this includes Paulsen), as their friends accumulate. The market action has been impressive lately, especially whenever Obama makes an...

Hi, The DDMs have been actually performing the best lately, followed by the SSOs, and then the QLDs. However, I am not sure whether this flight to large caps is temporary or whether it is a theme that will dominate the next Bull cycle, as institutions become less risk adverse. NASDAQ may bne...

BTW, here is an article in today's WSJ that outlines how Sweden battled and defeated deflation. It was very tough medicine. If I remember correctly, they borrowed over 20% if GDP to get there: How Sweden Beat Deflation

Yes, everyone is simply guessing at this point, as to what will happen, other than everyone knows that the government is going to flood the economy with dollars, by borrowing (from China, Japan, etc.), printing (electronic printing is very efficient nowadays), and leveraging its balance sheet...

I had a limit order to Buy in today, but the price of QLD is hovering right above it. I am not going chasing though. I will watch the action tomorrow. If I can buy it lower, that is great with me. My objective is to buy as much as possible at this level, while maintaining cash reserves for...