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Just back tested it on a few strategies and it works very well. The best results are when there is a recent cross in (1) and (2) and the difference between them is still quite small. A good way to test the validity of the indicator might be something like; for Buys: if there is a recent cross...

Hi Folks, I hope you are well. I have just been playing around with how you can apply the concept of Sharpe Ratio and Sortino to price action to predict drawdowns on trades and also future price movement. Quick summary if you are unfamiliar with Sortino...

Hi incidentally, i've just been playing around and there may be a price action indicator in it. If you take a short number of bars (like 10) and plot 2 graphs: (1) buy downside risk = average price change up in 10 / st dev price change down in 10 (2) sell upside risk = -1* average price change...

Just had a quick look. The property/indicator is for 20 bars looking at the buys as example is average price change for bars that closed up / st_deviation price change for bars that closed down quick test EURUSD 2004 - 2017 H1. the value ranges from 0 to 12. As it increases the average...

Hi thanks for this earlier post. I was thinking that a good property might be one that uses the standard deviation as a measure of 'down-side'/other-side risk. Something similar to Sharpe Ratio might a way to do it. If the sharpe ratio measures the risk-adjusted return...

I think the problem is a different approach. If you trade the Price Action Intraday using Technical Analysis then it would not make sense to have a fixed R:R. I feel like you need to have access to the order book of your broker, to evaluate the real price action, in-order to make TA work...

hmmm....not quite. Maybe for event driven trading or something similar, not what I do. The entire premise is to gain statistical edge over a large number of trades, by looking for market properties (ideas) that tilt the probabilities. You wouldn't be able to even conceive a problem (trade) to...

You can't have a quantitative (systematic) strategy without articulating a risk reward ratio and other risk management measures, that is quite basic. How would you be able to choose between trading ideas, and monitor/manage your risk adjusted return otherwise.?

Hmm...I dont mind watching it again but I'm pretty sure it doesn't say that anywhere. There was an interesting comparison between the approach of professional versus retail traders at the beginning. I think maybe you should watch it again. .edit: oh I think maybe you mean when he said some...

Seen. Where does it mention r:r?

Or it may turn out to be nonsense; wouldn't be the first time. I'm open to any suggestion too.

Hi @SunTrader; thanks for the post. I currently trade 'moments' in a particular market, for example the moment of a breakout beyond 2 sigma on 50 bars in a currency pair. In that case the SL and TP would be a fixed percentage of the current sigma, say 1(tp) : 2(sl). The process is to capture...

Hi Folks, I was just wondering if anyone has tried to identify and model market properties that may effect the maximum drawdown of an open position. Assuming you trade with a fixed R:R in general, what is the maximum drawdown as a percentage of your risk, on the winning trades. And what is the...

I completely agree. This seems like a very good approach; edge signal with ultimate trader execution based on PA, TA and experience.

:D (lol)

Heard of these strategies, i'm skeptical. I feel like when you double down on a winner you are entering a new position which requires a new review (analysis). Does it work for you?

Greetings, thanks for the post. I mean, assuming you trade a with a certain R:R consistently for the most part; how much above your break-even win rate do you deliver.

Nice post. Thank you. I dabbled in Options a little bit doing just Covered Calls and Covered Puts on European style Options. It was working really well but somewhere along the line I went back to focus on underlying spot FX. Definitely want to go back, I have an idea for a good pricing model...

I'm working on it....

Hi Folks, Do you know any good sources of tips for discretionary trades. (Ideally professional) I had a small amount of money with a third party that brought my attention to BREXIT in 2016, and I was just reflecting that it would probably be a good idea to be have multiple channels to garner...