Search results

Probably more like $19,000 to feed them and other costs.

I agree that technically the trend is still bullish but the market structure is not with prices more likely to move sharply lower than higher, imho. For me the risk of being long is greater than that of going short, at least in my style of trading. To each his own.

Much of my trading is in finding patterns that are bottom, bounce, decline, bottom. I find this to be a common and high probability pattern when combined with my other analysis. In the same idea I think we may have a top, decline, rally, then a top. That would fit with this market and a rather...

Sell setup is still valid and my bias is still negative. If we trade above the pivot high of last week I will revisit the idea. Trading is never about absolutes but probabilities.

Right now I wouldn't give it any weight. I seriously doubt if any paper came into the floor today so whatever happened is probably attrituble to a couple of traders. Bias remains the same for me.

Commodity analysis based upon demand prediction almost never works-commodity pricing, for any commodity that is easily reproduced (corn, soybeans etc.) is dominated by supply issues. Why is that we seem to have corn running out of the elevators onto the ground, because supply is the dominant...

Right, wheat did too a couple weeks ago. I also wrote an article on that occurring over at my Tradingmarkets.com blog. http://themoneyblogs.tradingmarkets.com/researchlab/my.blog/grain-markets-offering-oversold-setups.html

It completed a setup aka sequential but that was also a countdown, it met the requirements of both. The reason it was a countdown is that a countdown began upon completion of a TD sequential on 6/06/2006. The countdown is more restrictive than just a sequential setup because it requires the...

The countdown begins after a sequential which is 9 consecutive closes above the close 4 days ago. The countdown is not consecutive it just needs a close above the close 2 days ago up to 13 times for a full countdown. Criveria can probably look at that in bloomberg for on the exact date, I am...

Finally, the move down I have been expecting. I was beginning to get nervous that I had put outself out there as being bearish and then we were going to bust out to new all time highs and them some.

I am only showing one countdown, the current one on my screen and the prior as just a sequential. I will have to double check mine by hand though. Must be nice to have a bloomberg terminal. In my research one of the best buy or sell signals I find is when a market blows right by a countdown...

I talked to a broker today and he said he had talked to a floor broker and said there was almost no outside paper coming into the market-real thin, no buyers or sellers coming in it seemed. I also got the feeling that the floor is positioning for a correction but they say that a rally to a new...

CQG may have it, you can build it yourself if you have a platform that allows you to create your own indicators. Here is an article I wrote on my site that describes my research into the topic and how I use it. It also has links to two magazine articles on the subject...

I guess you have a bloomberg terminal then. Lucky you.

You are correct on those counts. Feeder cattle is in a sell countdown and very near a point of buying exhaustion. The only way I know to calculate DeMark TD sequential and countdowns is with a custom C>C[4] etc indicator I built for TradeStation. You can do it by hand also. I too...

Absolutely, I wouldn't enter wheat now but I was bullish on it and the fundamental fully support these prices. Hopefully corn can stage a rally into July.

Good luck, I just hope I don't get any blame if we get bombed in corn. I do think your trade captures the essence of what is going on in corn and though I have been more bullish on wheat I do think we will see higher prices for corn this summer.

I have been very bullish on wheat when it was oversold a week or so ago but less bullish on corn. Calls and call spreads are my preferred strategy as I think we could see more downside but higher prices by the end of summer. Yields may very well be 160 bu. or higher but I don't see balloning...

Unbelievable move, great job on the trade! Somtimes knowing the fundamentals of the commodity prevents one from trading-that is where I find myself right now-waiting.

Looks like the Feeder/Fat spread is correcting, today at least. Feeders are up 1 while Fats are up 1.85. This is the type of action we need to see more of to correct the spread. This is also the reason I like to trade this spread rather than make outright trades. We know the fundamentals of...