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Piccon, thanks for sharing your strategy. 1) What indicator (combination of indicators) do you use to determine overbought/oversold? If stochastics, do you use slow/fast (14)???? 2) Do you look for just crossovers or above 70/below 30 Thanks

Thanks Mo for your detailed reply. The last 2 months I have legged into narrow IC on XEO. Started at about .20 delta at support/resistence. Around 30% profit each month. Of course, XEO has been in a range...............

Mo, Thanks for the butterfly links. 1) What indexes do you trade butterflies on? XEO/MNX...? 2) When do you generally open a position (10 days before expiration)? 3) How do you decide on the short/long strikes? long strikes at support/resistence, or +- 1 1/2 std. deviation away from...

Hi Donna, I was soooo busy at work. Back to the thread and pages to read. I know my 585/595 could be in trouble. I am experimenting selling xeo otm below support and above resistance .20 delta or so on either side ...................... Looking at the xeo chart: 1) I can see it trading...

One more. Just catching up with all of the posts..............................

Does anyone look at candlestick charts? Is the XEO showing a bearish engulfing pattern? Which means the start of a downtrend over the next few days......

and ME.... living dangerously right now. With the 585/595 Feb XEO bear call. I had bought calls end of Dec. expecting the market to go up. When the market broke support, I converted to a bear call. A few days later the market changed direction again and surged. If I had kept the...

Coach, I have oex 590 Feb calls. Was looking for an uptrend. But, now that the support is broken, do you think converting to a 580-590 bear call (Feb) is too risky. If the market trends down, I could buy it back for less at the end of Jan. So, I would not hold till Feb expr. Thanks.

The market is trading is such a narrow range. Does anyone know if any news is expected today or in the next few days which can cause the market to trend? The charts on OEX seem to show an ascending triangle.......?

12/12 bought oex calls in anticipation of today's meeting 12/13 sold those calls for 45% profit. Small profit though, as I traded very few far OTM contracts. Next time, I will trade just OTM.

Thanks Riskarb. So, to gain volatility edge in a expected move, the .30 delta options work best. ATM options work better if the move is not as much, or not quick enough. What are strip vols? Thanks. I thought the option prices move along the same graph as the index moves. Did...

Yes. I've noticed that for directional moves ATM or ITM works best. But, the calls are expensive. So, I was trying to buy OTM, but in the range where the option volatility increases with an index price increase. that's an interesting thought......... I guess its the huge move that...

On the TOS platform if you look at the volatility graph, it shows When SPX moves up say from 1200 to 1320, volatility decreases BUT When SPX move up say from 1320 to 1375, volatility increases So, I see volatility increasing as SPX moves higher for options...

Thanks MoMoney and Coach for your replies. If you expect an immediate directional move in an index, then if you select an option at the bottom of the smile, an increase or decrease in index price will cause the volatility to increase as the option move along the graph.... (In the case of...

closed Jan spx 1290/1300 call profit: 2% This was put on as a directional trade. I was hoping to close with more of a profit if the index went to about 1245, but the SPX seems to be holding above 1250 with upside potential. When you buy at the bottom of the volatility skew...

Thank you riskarb and (coach for explaining). I usually sell > 1 std. deviation away. The ATM straddle cost is a great way of looking at the range of index movement (to expiration) based on current IV. A formula for the estimated move (EM) of a stock or index: EM = Stock price (SP)...

Thinking about the SPX 1290/1300 or 1300/1310 Jan. bear call. Probably a downtrend in the next few days. Plan on closing this spread at 50% profit. Coach, 1290/1300 or 1300/1310 Jan SPX, what do you think?

Thanks Coach for talking me out of the 570/575 XEO. Would have lost if I rolled 565/570 to 570/575. Closing 565/570 was the best choice. I sold my long Dec. 580 XEO call today (bought as a hedge) (it had more than doubled. It could have gone higher, but days to expiration < 30, so...

I think it works better for swing trading. Also, instead of the 12/26/9 MACD, I have seen 8/17/9 or even shorter MACD used to catch the trend quicker (more whipsaws though).

I do look at the MACD for trend and momentum analysis. For bullish signals: 1) Look for MACD line (difference between a 12 and 26 exponential moving average) crossing above the signal line (9 day exponential moving average of the MACD. For shorter time frames I think you use the...