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Not sure what Waller is smoking, but the data I displayed from the St. Louis Fed site. As for the dollar, its been falling for sometime. I'm still short on it. It edged up today slightly, but its wiped out 3 months of gains

What are you talking about. It peaked in Jun and has been trending down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=WhmD

Agreed, but there enough data points from the last few months to see a peak. Top image is from the 80s. Bottom image is current year. I tried to show the market on the left image and the CPI on the right. (and this was before the recent annoucement of 7.7% yesterday) I matched up the month of...

We are in a mid-term election year which is generally a bear market year. It's followed by a pre-election year which usually rallies starting from the last quarter of the mid-term election year. Then you got all the folks that buy in Nov and sell in May coming in. History also shows that when...

In the last meeting, the fed already mentioned possibly slowing down the rate hike by the next meeting or the one after that. The upcoming FOMC meeting is on Dec 14. With unemployment rising from 3.5% to 3.7%, that will have some impact on spending and indirectly the inflation rate. Total...

The strategy based on fundamentals and relative strength. If both aren't there you won't get any picks so you'll be out of the market

AAII has a CAN SLIM strategy it created based on the book. It's done well over the years with a 7000% return since 2000. Basically buy their picks at the beginning of the month. Sell at the end of the month and buy the new list. The downside is that sometimes the list is too small. (which...

Here is a discussion on Outside Days from "Trading Systems and Methods" by Perry Kaufman

I think the game starts with a 60% win rate so if you manage your position sizes you should be able to reach the 50% goal after 75 trades. When I first tried it, I randomly set my risk/share and quickly blew out my account. Then I tried another approach where I scaled down the position sizes...

I don't know much about options, but with those numbers, 25%

You start with 10k at Level 1 and work with that. Since it was just a game, drawdowns be dammed, I just maxed out the risk at 4% per trade. (Kept all the trades and balances on a spreadsheet) Finished level 1 at 23k. Started level 2 at 23k and finished up at 39k Started level 3 at 39k but by...

For anyone interested, Van Tharp has a position sizing game that you can use to test your risk management. There are I think 10 levels and the first 3 are free. The goal is to make 50% by 75 trades. They provide the parameters on the strategy and you manage the risk. Position Sizing Game, a...

I create a discord channel and break it down into different sections. I create topics/sections for entries, exits, research, main journal, forecasts. It does a good job capturing images and its free. Having different topics makes it easier to jump back to what I need to review. Plus I have...

Try a MACD crossover. Most folks like to hold on to their stocks for the longest time so a lagging indicator like the MACD may work. You can also try a 9 day volume high. Thats also a common sell signal. You can also use a parabolic SAR breakdown or a perfected Demark sell countdown...

Do you trade only the index through ETFs? GAZ has been going down since June 2008 and has just started to recover. That would have been an easy short. ABII would have been another easy short.

I think you just need to look harder. Either that or tell us when you are going long so we can all then go short. Just kidding. :) There are plenty companies that are going down (even today). I have short positions in them.

Trade for 2 weeks and then fall back to small positions until you start seeing profits in your positions again. Record the days of losses to find out how long it takes to get your streak back. Repeat. Thats a workable system. Good luck.

Yes, create a system. Start with a simple moving average system and see how it works. Test it across stocks from different sectors. A stock like US Steel trends differently than something like Disney. US Steel might work better on a trend trading system where as Disney might work better...

Congrats.

Everyone has their own strategy that they are comfortable with so its hard to identify a "right" way. You need to identify which trading technique your most comfortable with. Do you trend trade, countertrend trade, scalp, swing trade? Each technique uses a different strategy. When...