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req, actually it was before the fact analysis, I wrote this yesterday on this thread. And I wrote the blog post (above link) this morning, hours before the Fed announcement. I also wrote this months ago calling for a rate cut: Fed Should Cut Rates Immediately when no one was even talking...

Not difficult to see this coming. There was a 100% chance of a 25 bp cut and a 75% chance of a 50 bp cut (FF futures market). As I said before, the bond market was the "tell" and it was screaming for a 50 bp cut. Check out the long term chart of the Fed rate and the 90 T-bill rate to see...

Look, the bond market leads the Fed by the nose. I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know what will happen tomorrow. What I do know is that if the Fed doesn't ease, it will be a first! The first time they have decoupled from the bond market. I find that HIGHLY improbable.

I think we are already in a recession... at least according to two key economic variables that have correctly presaged previous recessions. The bond market leads the Fed every time - unlike the myth that the Fed sets the rates. And it has been signalling a massive rate cut spree around the...

I don't think gold is going anywhere except dawdling within the trading range.

Actually, the Fed is waaay behind the curve. Take a look at how they usually follow the short term T-Bills and how far things have gotten out of whack. Unless they suddenly start to "wing it" and chuck out the window everything they've been doing since the foudation of the Fed, we're going to...

Something most people have missed during the recent market downturn is that while the retail mutual fund investor has been fleeing the US stock market, pulling money out at a higher rate than even after Sept 11, the institutional players have been buying hand over fist. Watch video in link...

right. it is an estimate or a throw of the dice of sorts. just like taking any trade. but if you have an edge, over time repeated several thousand times, the outcome is in your favor.

what exactly did he say that hasn't already been known? :confused:

fwiw Dave, I agree with you. CROX has an indefensible market position. I'm seeing chinese knockoffs all over the place at one tenth the price. not sure when but this is going to zero Heely's already is a goner...

Just that... 12 reasons why you will look back on this opportunity and kick yourself if you didn't buy.

SCI, just curious, if not using technical basis, how would you trade these? or just step aside until things clear up? iow the opportunity is gone?

I think the financial sector will bottom here. any thoughts?

what is the difference? thanks

Since it is small caps, they are a more representative index for US stocks. The SPX has a lot of international exposure. So if you want to short the US stock market, you'd go more with RUT than SPX.

chocolate chip? yeah, hit me

I think we are very close here to a significant inflection point. I called the downside on Monday (premarket) and the continued weakness on Wed. Let's see if the streak continues.

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Unquestionably the worst president and administration your great country has ever had to endure.

wow, is that really his return?