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Yeah majors can boast with very good liquidity, it's their major advantage (sorry for pun). Some brokers offer excellent conditions for scalping based on latency as well but you have to spend some time to solve some challenging technical questions, set up platform and optimise code.

It's impossible. Should we then also to track winning trades that could happen by pure luck? They also distort results, don't they?

Guys we have to admit one simple thing - Bitcoin is the first "Ponzi scheme" which made DOUBLE top and sustained ALL criticism so far. Due to this there is currently no resistance to the upside if government won't force it down again.

And how do they make money if their spreads are zero, lol. Sounds like a fairytale. Looks like an attempt to lure new newbie investors.

Yeah I meant it's all about finding your edge which is mostly a trials and errors process.

Right, for example I found an edge on Fixed spread account (from Hotforex) trading USDRUB. Due to specific transactions costs on exotic pairs, stable spreads reduce transaction costs in average helping too boost profits. Just an example.

I would suggest to try FCA-regulated names like Hotforex or Tickmill, they are long in this market and from my experience constantly improve their services and try to stay in the competition.

Difference in transaction costs and execution speed. Unfortunately many "working" trading edges (trade secrets) hinge on them. That's why as you grow as professional the list of acceptable brokers shrink :)

I think he meant dealers. Anyway for OTC trading how we can talk about the market in a classic sense? Price takers, i.e. us will never be able to be dealers and vice versa. We have different goals and functions in this trading.

Depends on a volatility. This year, take for example SPX had crazy volatility (1% more than 200 days from the year).

They can definitely predict volatility outbreaks. Saw a chart from Goldman Sachs before November elections where implied by options volatility of returns indicated a kind of a shock with subsequent fading. And yes it happened exactly in the same fashion.

If we take specific point of time, for 1 Minute Returns, how do we determine the sample to calculate standard deviation and which should remain predictive for some future short-term returns?

Statistical frequency converging to some theoretical one. Classic definition.

You are faced with the two options: Lose $10000 with a probability of 0.02 Lose $420 with a probability of 0.5 Which one would you choose? :D Which is more important: risk or perception of risk?

Hi, Elitetraders What are the approaches to measure probability that in the next n-minutes time return of an asset just exceeds some r? Can it depend, for example on rolling std? Any clues or hints are appreciated, including math sophisticated ones. Just need direction where to dig.

I meant the higher is number of trials (market trades) the higher is probability to get 2, 3 sigma event in terms of impact on your return :)

Looks like he forgot that the longer we stay in the market the higher is a chance to get a really adverse event which has potential to blow account.

Yeah it's the biggest difference unless you're scalper or momentum trader and see HUGE difference in execution.

You can try Tickmill or Hotofrex, I trade with them, both have FCA licenses and offer ECN access

With low leverage you simply smooth the risk in time, since to make returns proportionate to returns made with leverage, you have to spend more time in trading which increases probability of getting extreme adverse event :)