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  1. J

    er2 naked future option journal

    I'm curious then about your Oct 610 put entry. You first mentioned it on Aug 31 (unless I missed it earlier.) The past few days would seem to be a good entry for short calls, but not necessarily for puts. OTOH, you sold them for 2ish and they are now down to 1ish, which would indicate that...
  2. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    Don't forget that stdev is partly based on historical volatility which has been very low. This compresses what you see as +1 and -1 sigma. If/when the market activity picks up in Sept, what looked like a good 1 sigma bet in August may change quickly. This may be particularly problematic...
  3. J

    er2 naked future option journal

    Hi domestic, You are a brave man to discuss unhedged option shorts. Its only a matter of time before somebody summons He Who Must Not Be Named, the Dread Lord VN! Mwahahahahaaaa! :D Seriosuly though... What do you use to time your entries? One of the advantages of naked vs spread...
  4. J

    Vertical Spreads for Aggressive Growth

    That's a whole different and nasty can of worms, isn't it :) The big question here is do you trust this guy enough to trade your money? Do you trust yourself enough to spot a good trader from a bad trader from a dishonest trader? Particularly since they all try to dress themselves up as...
  5. J

    Vertical Spreads for Aggressive Growth

    What really struck me about John's post was this, " requires that you have your nose in the screen, be able to predict the direction very well, have a pretty good idea as to whether the move in the underlying that is affecting your spread will continue in that direction" I'm thinking, "well...
  6. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    Check out the profit zone on this baby! :) It only costs you $425 to get in.
  7. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I think many of your posts are quite useful and informative. But others sometimes get a whiff of superiority about them. I'm sure some of my posts have a green cloud floating up :) The point is, we're here attempting to learn and improve our game. If you disagree with the current topic...
  8. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I see your point that a more complicated position isn't necessarily a better position. "Better" is in the eye of the beholder of course. I totally disagree that brokerages are the beneficiary of options overtrading. I am quite sure that if I spend $3 per contract to buy a calendar and...
  9. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I always think about the quote from one of the 20's era market "greats". JP Morgan perhaps? I don't recall. "I don't mind volatility. Its down that I don't like" :)
  10. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    Edited and forgot to re-attach...
  11. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I think a long calendar might be a better tentpole. Like the fly, it is still a defined risk and defined margin. It has a wider b/e and just like the diagonal's it is being paired with, it benefits from rising volatility. You can do a CTM call or put diagonal as a tentpole, but the loss from...
  12. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    For SPAN margin, yes. SPAN is portfolio risk based. When you add the backmonth longs, your portfolio risk changes and span adjusts accordingly. Also, a little followup on my earlier post on ToS. My demo period with them ended and I sent back an email explaining why I wasn't going to setup...
  13. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    It depends on the kind of position, how far OTM, etc. Also a factor is how many other trades you have on with the same underlying. If I have a bunch of ES trades in place, I sometimes have to switch to ER2 to make the next trade I want. For instance, a 10 point vertical credit spread on ES...
  14. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I currently have some ES SEP1230P/OCT1200P diagonals in place from a few days ago. Margin required to add contracts is about $700 per contract, on a 30 point spread with a max risk of 30*$50=$1500. For comparison, what if I were to buy the SEP1290P/OCT1260P. The SEP short is basically at...
  15. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I'd be happy to tell you if I knew the answer :) SPAN margin looks at your whole portfolio, so unless you only have 1 trade on, its hard to tell what the margin is for any individual trade. You can also check your margin before and then after a trade. But that still may not be a good...
  16. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    The trades were ES options, which ToS doesn't offer. I trade them through IB. I would move to ToS in a heartbeat if they had globex futures options and SPAN margin. Instead, I am going to either rollover a small retirement account to ToS, or just stick $3500 in a cash account with them so I...
  17. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    AUG ES options are still trading today. With that in mind, here were my two diagonal trades for the month. This is for illustrative purposes only. I do not claim any expertise with this strategy. My normal trades are about as subtle as a rhino horn up the backside :) 7/25 ES 1277 VIX...
  18. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    On a board that discusses FOTM vertical spreads, I don't think a high risk/reward, high probability and small credit is exactly taboo. I don't know anything about Summa's current trades, but what you described doesn't scare me off. I would be cautious about someone who makes their money off of...
  19. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    He was dumbing it down for my benefit :) I understand that a volty jump will benefit the long backmonth more than it hurts the short frontmonth. But if the market opens up 30 points below your long, you are still facing a loss of almost the full width of your diagonal spread. Certainly the...
  20. J

    SPX Credit Spread Trader

    I find it curious that you would say this. One of the big knocks on vertical credit spreads is their exposure to negative shock events. A black swan loss that wipes out many small wins (and your whole account if overleveraged). Doesn't a diagonal have the same exposure?
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