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  1. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

    The "I believe" should have been a dead giveaway, but that post is categorically false and whoever wrote it was theorizing, poorly I might add.
  2. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

    Not really sure what you are asking.
  3. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

    The only worthwhile commentary out there in 'blog' type format is from Dominick Chirichella and he writes about the entire energy complex. Aside from him, you might find some former floor guys trying to pitch their BS but it's usually just that. Most of the 'money flows' are concentrated in...
  4. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

    Oil 101 is a small start; more holistic in nature rather than strictly related to the curve. There's no definitive book on trading term structure, but anything by Dragana Pilipovic, Helyette Geman or Davis Edwards would be beneficial. I've been learning this my entire career.
  5. ogarbitrage

    QM ...1 point = $500

    You think commercials want 10x the commissions too? It's far from the same thing and your entire post betrays your ignorance of the market.
  6. ogarbitrage

    QM ...1 point = $500

    Those are called ETFs.
  7. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

  8. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

    Z/Z and Z/M spreads are used to trade the steepness or severity of the curve typically. They exhibit the standard bull and bear spread correlations relative to the front, but are used primarily as long term plays on the term structure. You need to be watching the entire curve to really...
  9. ogarbitrage

    CL Dec Spreads

    Are you watching the entire curve or just these spreads in isolation?
  10. ogarbitrage

    CL Redux

    Nice call.
  11. ogarbitrage

    Arbitrage

    Yes, that spread in particular was Tocom's gasoline vs. CME's Mogas 92 contract. Tocom is listed in JPY and 1 contract is for 50 kilos of gasoline. Mogas 92 is listed in USD and good for 1,000 bbls gasoline. June is trading .095; July trading .195.
  12. ogarbitrage

    Arbitrage

    Depends on your goal and what you want to trade. If you want to trade or have the option to trade the physical then your largest barrier to entry is going to be capital and securing lines of credit (LCs). If you want to be involved in the paper market only, you need access to global...
  13. ogarbitrage

    Arbitrage

    June Spore/Japan spread trading .14, July trading .28. Japan still premium.
  14. ogarbitrage

    RIN Prices 2013

    The blend wall was known but poorly understood by many people. It was not until the initial rally that the refiners really started to dig into the data.
  15. ogarbitrage

    RIN Prices 2013

    That rally was the direct result of government mandates. More proof government should not be in markets.
  16. ogarbitrage

    Arbitrage

    Singapore/Japan gasoline arb open by a nice margin.
  17. ogarbitrage

    Heating Oil spreads

    Sorry, this one is up to date. I did not realize the Gulf Coast curve (red, below) was so dated in the previous post (green). This is just the forward curves for NWE gasoil as you noticed, with Gulf Coast and NY harbor ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD). If you're going to trade a NY product...
  18. ogarbitrage

    Heating Oil spreads

    Keep an eye on the NY Heat vs. ICE Gasoil spread. The arb is technically open by a small margin, so you may see product moving west.
  19. ogarbitrage

    Heating Oil spreads

    FYI summer is historically not a big demand season for heating oil. Why aren't you trading a bull spread on RBOB? Edit, just read the above. Good call.
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