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With so many barrels going into storage on account of the Brent/Dubai contangos, I think the WTI curve should steepen in a similar fashion. When the WTI rolls open enough to offer storage arbs on WTI, we'll get even more bbls going into storage which should depress prices further.

The Saldanha traffic starting to pick up. One currently unloading and three waiting.

Hey bone, that's news to me. Thanks for sharing. Curve took quite a hit today. Every z/z spread beyond the front z4/z5 is negative.

Right on time.

WSJ picking up the story. Oil-Price Quirk Sends Crude Out to Sea

It seems no one ever taught him how to think, only what to think. Hence the copy/paste. It's all he knows.

No, I stopped after seeing the first. Ayn Rand.

The book does. The movie trilogy is shit.

I am not sure if there is a way to see physical/cash settlement numbers. I would ballpark by dividing the ending OI by 600 and always rounding down. You can expect the cargoes delivered to be around this number. However, outside of comparing the production rates to the expiration OI, I...

You can check the open interest at expiration of the contract to see how much is getting delivered. BFOE is delivered in increments of 600k bbl.

Hard to tell how much is going to storage vs. local consumers. Making some assumptions based on the chartering and voyage history of several of the vessels coupled with the media reports and view of the Brent and Dubai curves. It does seem possible to purchase bbl of LATAM crude on a WTI...

This one is interesting. VLCC Marina left the Galp Sines refinery in Portugal empty on July 18. It proceeded to head South, stopped in Tenerife for bunkers, proceeded to Gulf of Guinea, conducted a ship to ship transfer of crude from Lagos or Lome, taking on ~1.75-2.0mm bbls, then down to...

I think there are some blending economics in this equation we're unaware of. As to your question, it's hard to say as it's really a subjective number relative to the trade, the available products, the holding or transport time, cost of funds, and the logistical assets available. The typical...

The saga continues. TI Europe is a beautiful ship. She was involved in a similar fuel oil time arb a year or two ago based in the ARA complex. Her three cousins have already been converted into FPSO vessels if I remember correctly.

Genscape or Tankterminals.com might offer something but they won't be cheap.

It's a pretty private market, but Marex Spectron offers a daily report, while Clarksons and RS Platou occasionally publish rates online. Found another. Petalidi left the Sea Island terminal at Ras Tanura Aug 12 - probably carrying ~1.0mm bbl mix of Arab Light/Medium for blending - and about to...

Karvounis unloading...

The VLCC rates at the time were roughly 50c/bbl and the V/X Brent spread was trading in the high 70s when I wrote that. The standard VLCC can hold ~2.0 million bbls.

Correction to my last post: I think Karvounis is actually carrying ~700k bbl of Roncador crude (not 350k). And per Reuters: Right on schedule and laying 15.2 meters in the water, looks to be carrying 1.0 - 1.05mm bbls.

Karvounis arrived in Saldanha this morning and looks to be fully laden at 14.2m draft. Itinerary history suggests the vessel is carrying ~350k bbl of Brazilian medium sweet Roncador, exported from the Angra dos Reis terminal on Aug 3-4. Will be interesting to see where this one goes in the...