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Go back to Bluegold day (2/4/2010) and you'll see it. That lasted two days. Today's big move was partly caused by the May Day holiday in Asis and part of Europe (Greeks using May Day to parade?!). After the long weekend, markets reacted strongly to the news on Greece. To me, the $4...

Both N and Q had breakouts above 52-w highs. Last year's high M/N spread was $3.11, in April. We see the contagions today.

Been playing with M/N spread. This thing is wild too, from high of $3.47 to low $2.70 ! Now out of spread, net long.

We both are naive, or both oracles. Is that good enough? :D Calm down and be nice.

If you are not naive, then you know risking $90 will always make you $180, not losing $180?! If trading is this easy, why don't you keep trading and making all the $? The shop I know of is one of the known speciality spread trading shops, not something like ComEd or Exelon who do not have a...

The loan deal was already priced in on Friday. But Greek situation was even worse than thought. There was not much to cheer about, neither were Greeks nor Germans. But traders may still want to buy the black gold. Momentum is the king.

Euro just turned negative now. With US stronger and EU weaker, Euro will only get weaker. If Euro stays low, I expect CL to come back down tomorrow, unless equity has big move.

The Euro is not done yet. If Euro turns negative, one of the CL pillars is removed. Then CL has to find support from equity or the BP leak. Not sure if CL can take out the high and stay that high, for now.

Yes, we differ. The pros would want to be the newbies to trade crack spread profitably. With direct trading cost/fees 20% to 40% of the total gross profit, the traders have to have the edge. Some of the technical trading rules won't work with spreads. Glad that your traders are doing well...

Energy (CL, NG, etc) spread trading can be frustrating for new and retail traders. The trading cost is high and return is relative low. It is more suitable for institutional traders who have edge with the energy market and the fact they are happy with 10% to 20% return, but can't take even a 5%...

-$2,700. Just up $2,000 for the month (8 days). Too much leverage. Still issues with order management....

Sh CLN at 88.07, 40c stop.

In general, yes. But weak GDP can drop US dollar and makes CL stronger, like what happened in 2008.

CL looks tired after the past two big runs. M/N spread widens from $1.95 to $2.2, very bearish. Some profit-taking on Euro. Next thing is GDP. Let's see what happens.

Now eveyone along the coast wants a piece of BP: fisherman, beach/hotel owners, and local government, etc. Maybe BP traders started to recover the cost today? :D

For oil, the long-term trend is up. We may see a test > $90, or even $100 by end of year. The medium term, it is stuck now at $80 to $90. It should not stay below $80 for long. Fundamentally, nothing is exciting. No shortage of anything. But with stock indices up 1.5% and Euro recovered...

Off topics, on that NG play, if you see daily chart, NGM was not able to push above $4.40 since mid-March. It was stuck within $3.90 to $4.40. Then the weekly EIA is always volatile, but 4-week average is stable. Last week's # was bullish, so this week's # should be neutral or slightly...

We should remember that, if gain is $20k, the risk is at least that same amount!

From what I see, the Greek thing was overdone. Now in a day, we recovered all the loss. CL follow equity. Now we get the leak/spill push. The after-market move is all that push. But the leak/spill should not have big impact to oil supply. Cushing is just a few MM close to capacity. The...

Well, it depends. If I want to risk $100K and assign $3,300 risk/contract, I can put on 30 contracts outright. That is only 1% of a $10MM account. Spreads are safe, but low risk-adjusted returns.