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I also see the 1190 support level that was tested in late June, with the sentiment the last few days I'm not sure how well that will hold. The warning level for my puts is 1185 (I am short the Oct 1170). My concern is that we blow through 1190 going down and I will be forced into an...

I may or may not have solved the mystery, you tell me. When I did my intial calculation I used the IV for the SPX itself. I redid the calculation using the IV of the 1170 put. I came up with 15.9 going this route. This makes the delta a rough approximation for the probability. So, am I...

I have a 1160/1170 Oct SPX credit spread right now. We always talk about using delta as an approximation for the probability of the option expiring in the money. Right now the delta for 1170 is .14. I ran the numbers through a probability calculator and got .048, obviously a big difference...

Pete Najarian (filling in for Dr. J yesterday on cboe tv) said that volatility has dropped considerably on the SPX. He said it is because a lot of people are selling spreads and have driven the volatility out. Maybe we are getting too popular :D ryan

The tradeoff you are making is more credit for more risk vs smaller credit for less risk. If you are going to increase your margin by going out to next month, have you looked at selling more contracts in October? This would increase your credit and increase your margin while keeping the time...

Right after I typed in my message I checked the spreads again and they dropped (the market makers must be monitoring this board lol). I'm hesitant to go with the 1255/1265 and the credit is smaller than I would like on the 1260/1270 now with the dip. I will sit tight and see if we get a rally...

I was able to close my 1280/1290 call spread for a good profit yesterday (.80). Now I'm looking at the 1255/1265 or 1260/1270. We should still have good resistance at 1245 so I definately want to be above 1250. If I can grab .50 for the 1260/1270 I may just have to do it. Are you planning...

SPX 1280/1290 Oct call spread has been at .30/.30 all morning so I'm not having any luck closing this spread before the weekend. Any way to take advantage of a bid/ask like that? Of course, as I type this it moved to .20/.30, but it was at .30/.30 for over 20 minutes. ryan

You can put me down for b and d also. ryan

Actually, my spread is 1280/1290.

I have a 1270/1280 spread that I received $.90 credit for last week. I would like to close it for $.15-$.20 (it's getting close) then wait until after the hurricane hits before putting on another call spread. ryan

Rich Saudi Princes can really drag their feet when sending you their money lol! The elephant ears were for the annual church fair that my wife ropes me into working every year. After seeing how much grease and butter is used up at the end of the night it makes you not want to eat them for a...

So the millionaire accredited investors aren't coughing up the cash fast enough for your fund Coach? If you let any of us lowly unaccredited investors in with our small amounts of cash let me know, I might throw you a bone! Gosh I'm tired, I was up until midnight making elephant ears last...

Sorry, I just kind of stumbled across this information and haven't found anything going the other way. Although, I'm sure if I looked at a chart from the late 90's there would be some good gaps heading upwards. ryan

This link will give you some idea of the gaps in the S&P 500 during large events: http://storage.msn.com/x1pmAkndzHuOfcsEsyKjv5dTNtmohvVm_YOekWeMULLIWOkSLKOGX8jfNJCeSgcxCNItdQupsgnKAggTbCLri-6B1udMlMM6YB7ThOqQTn7iXnTHC_ovshLlKb8Jz_B0GF6

I was able to get out of my Sep 1250/1260 on Wednesday and make a decent profit. I have now opened up the following: 1160/1170 put spread: $.60 credit 1280/1290 call spread: $.90 credit I was tempted yesterday to close the 1280/1290 for a profit and open a 1275/1285 for around $.90 but...

How do you know you won't lose your job tomorrow? Most likely you won't, but you could. Your past experience says that you are doing your job well and that things are fine. Based on this you make large purchases such as a house, a car or other item where you take out a loan you can repay...

I'm planning on getting out of my 1250/1260 spread tomorrow and look at new spreads for Oct. I took some glances at spreads today and found some decent premiums at some attractive strikes. Will have to wait and see if they are still available after I close out my Sept spreads. ryan

Because of the hard charging market today I decided to get out my lucky rabbit's foot , a few four leaf clovers and started bowing to the gods of resistance to help protect my 1250/1260 spread ;-) If that doesn't work, I may have to start the sacrifices! Sacrificing my hard earned dollars...

The relatively low volumes we have seen lately makes it hard to tell if the recent run up is going to have legs or not. I agree, 1245 looks like a strong resistance point and I am rooting for the technical traders to start shorting if we get there! I set my "warning" level at 15 points from...