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I have changed my opinion about her. I think she is a fraud. She talks about finding leaps with 0 or 1% time value, and they don't exist. She also likes to mention that she is vacationing on a tropical island because she has done so well.

They are totally different strategies. Going long with a DITM call on SPY is just leverage. Since the market goes up more than it goes down, it should work over the long term. Spreads are like arbitrage. A lot of small trades that make small profits. My concern is if I switch between...

So I read about two ways to use the DITM leap strategy. One is just to use it with calls. The other is based on technical signals, switch between calls and puts. I am leaning towards the calls only method. Thoughts?

The problem with experts can be that if they have devoted their whole life to espousing one idea, They are not at all open to new ideas. They see them as a threat. When Robert Shiller started talking about behavioral economics, he was horribly shunned because everyone was modern portfolio...

The link below is an article that discusses how the 200d and 50d moving averages have lost their predictive power since 1993. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240420320/heres-what-the-sp-500s-50-day-moving-average-is-telling-us-now-about-stocks From the article. From 1928...

No. I relied on his backtests. Is orats free? It seems DITM leaps are a much better strategy?

I just wrapped up my third book on buying LEAPS, and this one brings a fresh perspective. The author suggests allocating 20% of your portfolio to an at-the-money (ATM) LEAP on SPY, with the remaining 80% invested directly in SPY shares. The entry signal he recommends is quite specific: buy in...

Also, I don't expect to beat the market by a lot. If I can beat it by 1 - 1.5% a year with a high sharp ratio, I am happy.

At this point in time, I am no longer a quant. I rely on other people’s backtests, not ones I have done.. The backtesting software I have access to, can do anything in the world. However, it was written by a PhD in Math, not a software engineer, so it is very user unfriendly. You almost need...

When I used to do it, we took overfitting into account, and had about 10 statistics we used to make sure they were valid tests, and still failure. It could have been as simple as more sophisticated people with better backtesting software started doing it, and arbitraged any advantage away. I...

You are both right. I was once a quant, and I have seen so many things work well in backtesting, and then fail. I have even seen things work well in backtesting, and then work well for ten years after backtesting, and then fail. The stock market is a very humbling place.

I don’t post much, because I have very little of value to say. Here is something that I think is worthwhile. Very long backtests that were the bread and butter of the quant’s approach I consider more or less irrelevant. Markets change too much based on macro factors to consider them to be...

I remember. The nasdaq was down 80%. The strategy can be used on any stock, or even any ETF. The Shiller PE is the third highest in history, so perhaps, now is not the time to use the strategy.

I was a quant for a while, and was involved with 100s of thousands of backtests. Speaking as someone who really knows backtesting, I can tell you their predictive value is almost zero. Now there is also post discovery. How has the strategy done after it was discovered? That is a little...

I don't know for sure, but I think it is the tech. stocks in the qqq that have done the best. You can do whatever analysis you know, and pick the best of them.

I recently delved into another book exploring the options strategy I previously mentioned: "Intrinsic" by Michael Yuen. Yuen's take offers a fresh perspective compared to the original text. His analysis starts with a compelling statistic: If you were to randomly select any tech stock from the...

I'm in a few groups, and I actually run one. In one of the groups I am in, there is a guy who is very knowledgeable. He once ran a hedge fund. He is very generous in giving advice to people who know less than him. It's not my group, so it will be run how it is run. One of the problems I...

Why is that? It is an investing board, not a political board, where you would expect shouting an insults.

Honestly, I don't think I would care. Now, if I faced personal attacks, I would probably stop posting.

I'm a newbie here, and don't know a lot about options, but I do think that people should be more civil to each other here.