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There is truth in these words.

In pursuit of being objective, I'm also submitting a chart with equal vertical gain scales. Don't want to be too misleading on the prior chart. <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1529958" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p>

Ok, so here's a comparison of 87 %gains to today's running one yr gain. The magnitudes are quite different. S&P 87 gained about twice as much in the same period (as seen on the right scale). However, considering the quote I gave from larry williams earlier on COT behavior in 87, and the...

Don't forget, there was a full moon recently, which implies that lunatics are have been running the asylum. Gotta start studying up on those gravitational cycles. :D

By the way, that article, "Magic Numbers in the Dow," in no way draws any conclusions about whether systematic trends exist. In fact, if anything, it refutes TA. The authors take a (pretty much) arbitrary definition of a cycle, in order to identify whether typical turning pts. occur at...

Food for thought: I ran some stats on S&P 500 going back to 1950. Likelihood of price remaining above 200dma at least 200 days is about once every 2.7 yrs. Same likelihood for price below 200dma at least 200days is once every 11 years. That pretty much says that sustainable trends do...

trounced estimates .46 vs .4 exp. Now if only they don't complain too much about the rupee/dollar exchange.

visual. <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1527250" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p></font></p></font></p>

Falling in AH on low volume. They won't show numbers till about 2:30 eastern. Now, looking at earnings history, they have a very low bar to beat 0.4 I think the AH mms are shaking out weak hands until earnings tonight. From ta/fund view, it looks like a buy here. Broke out of a falling...

I think this overlay thesis needs to be updated just a little bit. Just because we find similarities, doesn't mean they have to continue. <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1525810" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p></font></p>

Well said.

Not a good buy here IMO. Alcoa has a cyclical earnings cycle and the next quarter is projected downward. Same for rev. Watch those estimates drop. Reasons why to buy? http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070709/alcoa_results.html?.v=5 "I would think the shares are going to continue to rise on two...

Everyone expects strong earnings, excepting the earnings estimators that is. Single digit growth expected. Bar lowered. Odd how the forward looking market never saw that. Considering inflation as it (really) has been and stock buy backs, hard to see how they could not beat the lowered bar...

By the way, this graph indicates a perfect example of how ta itself is very subjective. Notice how the RSI and Nasdaq were both mathematically convergent from 10/06 right up to 11/06, the market pulled back, but there was no divergent signal. No matter how you fine tune the period of the...

Here's an idea about how you can assemble one. The conv/div indicator simply looks at the %change slopes over a fixed period. When they are in sync (convergent) it is green and positive, when they are out of sync (divergent) it is red. Keep in mind, like all other TA, it is subjectively...

I think I agree: trading for 10+ yrs, does something to your sharpness. Like taking a sharp knife and melting it into a butter knife. Plus, it's a very private endeavor, so you take the good and bad alone pretty much. How many traders can recall those days of screaming and cursing at the...

All of these explanations are correct, particularly the preceding one. I think the expression you are thinking of, is to stay away from the tail ends of the bell curve. The bell curve (like taco bell) is just a visual metaphor for a mathematical probability function, because when you graph it...

Cycle has been extended further backwards. Also, a plot of compounded price was added to see how it corresponded to long term S&P price chart. Notice that one period is about 40 yrs. Also, on the downtrend of the sine curve, the years tended to be sideways. While during uptrends, years tended...

Thought it would be interesting to curve fit s&p 500 Yearly returns with a sin envelope. Trajectories fit nicely on negative slopes. <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1518475" border="0" width=560 height=245 alt=""><br /></font></p>

Anyone notice they put a chart of apple on current Technical analysis of stocks and commodities. And proceeded to use TA showing it was ready to turn down? Almost like a baudrillard postmodern caricature of the cover contrarian theory. Normally a cover signals a top. Yet, here they are even...