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True. This 'overshooting' tendency can really screw up your faith in your analysis. Many times I've folded just before my trade proved true. Good luck.

Betting against the USD has been just too easy; we're due for a major shafting of non-insiders. The Dollar Index components are looking a little fragile up here - the Canadian Dollar is falling faster than the USD, the JPY is looking iffy, the British Pound is floating around in the...

Went short PDG this A.M.; just covered. Maybe a mistake. Euro brushed 123.0 this morning. That fulfills its immediate requirements and sets it up for a retreat to perhaps 118.0. Other USD currencies looking iffy at these levels. I think Greenspan may say something that boosts the U.S...

Thanx, T-Guy. Wish I could say I'm making a ton of money. Truth is, I'm OK at research and analysis and rotten at trading; I'm always aborting prematurely - too easily spooked by daily fluctuations. Know any good therapists for that sort of problem? Three months ago I bailed on my...

The Dollar down, Gold down was a fleeting moment; I didn't take it seriously at that point - just pointing out that any combo is possible. Gold got hammered this morning on its first shot at @410.0; also noteworthy is the poor performance of Gold Majors this morning. Nonetheless, I'm...

No doubt that a lot of that Large Speculator long position is solid institutional investment, but even these guys will hesitate if things look dicey. Did you check out the charts for Dec. contracts re. the Euro, Yen, Pound and Canadian Dollar? Don't those USD components look a tad ripe to...

As virtually everyone on ET must know by now, Greenspan has been boasting since his college days that he would have the moves to avert the next Kondratieff Winter if he were Fed Head when it came due. Well, he is, and his bag of tricks has been holding off the chilly weather for years now...

Apologies for the delayed response. If we stick with our premise that TA is evolving through a feedback relationship with the market and that it is evolving into something so complex that computers will be required to deal with it, we have no guarantee that market efficiency would improve...

Please consider my posts of 10:30 and 11:01 this morning, addressed to ILLIQUID and CUTTEN respectively; informed critique is always appreciated. Thanx for your input.

Widespread anticipation of 420.0 resistance may well lower the resistance level to 410.0- . The extended longs must be very nervous right now, especially after the recent massive rollover; they've already been disappointed and may be losing resolve. Comex Gold is busy here, but the net long...

After further consideration of the Dec. contract daily chart I believe I perceive a plausible alternative to either your ascending triangle or my wedge (or tightening channel). Do I see a rather neat symmetrical triangle described by 391.0/Feb, 321.0/Apr, 377.0/(May-Jun), 342.5/Jul - or...

I see what you mean. If your reading is right this thing is a monster! I would be downright overjoyed if you are correct; I could eat my losses and load up with Toronto penny golds.. and retire in six months (not joking). But I still see the big picture as a resumption of the uptrend after...

True, but Gold is in a rising wedge - albeit a pretty big wedge with a long way to go to the apex - but it's still a bearish formation. And, except for the ever-diving Dollar, the fundamentals at the moment are weak. Who knows when the USD will pull out of its swan dive? It could...

Good thinking. Will get back to you this aft. All I will say at this point is that computers are only as good as the programs that run them. Somebody will be trying to program so that s/he gets an edge over more conservative programming. At the very least, we'll be in uncharted (forgive...

Sometimes even the Big Money makes a hasty exit - more like the descending part of a trajectory than a trend. Let's hope we don't live to see another of those markets (but we know, of course, that we probably will). I too believe that basic TA will always be with us, but even the most basic...

Look what we have this morning: Gold down; Dollar down; Equities down. Anything is possible.

I'd say more like 90%. Some TA is basics, or at least de facto basics, by way of being virtually necessary functions of basics.. Price/Volume is pretty basic; price rising on diminishing Volume - investor interest at the higher price range is dwindling to a vanishing point. Basic...

And a pretty good thought at that. Maybe the distinction between metals and cash will blur with ETF's coming on the scene. We'll see.

Sounds pretty plausible to me. "Experts" anticipate ETF's to be equal to 1.5 - 2.0% of global gold equities by 2004's end but these are nothing more than guesses based on pretty suspect models. ETF interest is strong in the investing world and might well spark a surge of interest in Gold...

Hey, GAT - I've given up on long-term considerations; as far as I'm concerned there are too many black box factors operative in the global economy for anybody to make a meaningful analysis. My concern is strictly with the short-to-intermediate term. I'm not saying that Gold positively...