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What little research I have done has convinced me that buying options in general tends to be a losing proposition. To profit, it seems that you have to be extremely discerning. I think the art to Taleb's strategy is to monitor multiple underlyings and wait for a large enough safety buffer...

Any system that is implictly short a straddle will have occasional massive drawdowns admist steady income. Trend followers are long straddles, so they have occasional jackpots admist steady bleeds.

Chess is a one vs one game. The markets are a n-player game. I don't know if there have been studies on this, but my intuition is that n-player games are quite different in nature. I know economic game theory likes to analyze n-player games as merely an extension of 2 player games...

well, one possible use of an intra-day "trendiness" indicator could be to gauge inter-day momentum. This is completely speculative and theoretical (and I have done zero work on this), but intra-day trendiness could have a relationship to inter-day momentum. I recall some articles...

I guess I should have qualified my interest by saying that I do not intend to finesse my tax situation through the LLC at the moment - got better ideas for that when my profitability warrants more complex tax planning. At the moment my concern is more about creating a high quality track record.

I think lindq is right - you have to know the nature and character of your system - when it rakes it in, when it gets vulnerable, and the source of its profits. BUT - I think the market is non-stationary. Tectonic shifts do occur which demolish the profit source of many systems, and create...

I mentioned a study I did on retracements in the S&P this year - since I've done the work, I figured that I might as well share it. :) If you accept that the history suggests that a strong Oct YTD is followed by a positive Oct-Dec then this current pullback (6 days old) has a strong...

To the grizzled veteran traders out there who trade through an LLC - what advice would you give to others who are contemplating the same? Here are some of my initial considerations, just to kick things off. 1) Costs go up if you can't convince your broker to keep your fees...

One way to think abt this is: 1) trend followers are long straddles - when they bleed slowly in a mkt going nowhere, they are effectively paying the premium of a straddle. When the mkt breakouts, they collect a big big payout from their long option position. 2) traders who trade the chop...

I don't think that's strictly true. There are techniques more sophisticated than merely measuring momentum and trading with or against it.

... although I have no desire to be a pit trader or market maker myself.

... thanks for sharing. I'll be happy to follow your adventures.

The pit locals and the market makers take the biggest slice during the chop.

Did you make it to the screening of "Master and Commander"? It was great.

money, which simulator do you use for the ES?

$1,000 a day on $50,000 equity. That's a 40% return in a month, or a 5570% annual return if you recapitalize your risk positions monthly. Your trading is good sir, but perhaps you might wish to reconsider your goals. If you do achieve this, your handle of "money^3" would be too modest...

The fact that he is the CEO of a mining company leads me to discount whatever he is saying completely. I think every mining CEO who has lived through $280 gold is going to be calling up JP Morgan to sell more of his production forward. To them its all dollars - why risk lower revenues when...

apismoclam, 1) Are you from Pismo Beach? 2) How much trading capital do you think you need to have before its worth your while to trade part time and work part time? (I realize this question depends on so many factors, but I'd like your perspective) thanks.

I suppose it depends whether we are interested in the "keys to success" as a motivational tool or as an academic search for explanations. As a search for explantions, luck is probably the numero uno explanation. Whether you are born in the Congo or born in Conneticut probably explains more...

Actually producer hedging has been on the decline since the mid 90s. There is a possibility that at $400, producers are keen to lock in a good price - and with all the producers rushing to the door to get their hedges off, there might be a considerable overhang to the price as bullion banks...