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  1. M

    Does winning probability of a day trading system resets every day?

    The most simple way is check the correlation with the previous trade, or 10 trades or day or week, etc. As a simplistic example. If your strategy does better in trending market and the market is more range bound/ dead on a day, you would expect a lower than 60% win rate. So if you have...
  2. M

    Does winning probability of a day trading system resets every day?

    Have you checked for serial correlation? Trading is not flipping coins.
  3. M

    Out Today Market Making Scalping Manual

    What is his average profit per contract. I believe the person said " scalping is not a reasonable strategy for retail." Which I would believe to be true but also be willing to convinced otherwise. Professional scalping strats average around .50 per contract. Making them completely useless...
  4. M

    .sigma's 6 Degrees of Freedom (Short Synthetic Vol) 999 Journal

    There was a bunch of ACD enthusiasts here years ago. After trying it for awhile, I believe they all dumped it.
  5. M

    When Will They Release Options on Micro Futures?

    Why micros over spy, etc?
  6. M

    A real edge hardly requires any testing

    Right. I have been doing this for my sole source of income for over a decade. It is definitely my lack of understanding that is the problem.
  7. M

    A real edge hardly requires any testing

    What a load of crap. I hope your success holds.
  8. M

    S&P Futures Opens Down 20 Points!

    Look out below!!! Or back up the truck?
  9. M

    You're not THAT stupid, are you?

    It was a joke but kind of true. Automating makes it easier to avoid many mistakes and compare your decisions to the real strategy. It also makes it easier to increase size. Bad days are days the strategy didn't work. Not days I was stupid.
  10. M

    You're not THAT stupid, are you?

    Automate. Now machine makes mistake not me.
  11. M

    Multiple strategy testing in paper IB accounts

    Why would you need a new session for each algo?
  12. M

    Put Call not in parity

    Usually a dividend.
  13. M

    The Theory of Edge Diminishing

    Depends on trade. Technical analysis on es won't make a difference if shared. Spread trading milk futures, it could disappear in a week.
  14. M

    Hedging delta when gamma is positive

    No. You will end up long middle and short more wings. During large moves you will get crushed. Gamma changes with price.
  15. M

    Considering Trading Treasury Bonds Futures

    Tough game at this time.
  16. M

    Confirmation bias or valid procedure?

    I don't undersatnd the H1 M30 designations, but I believe they are time designations? Some strategies work better at some times than others. Usually for identifiable reasons. Perfectly reasonable to only trade most profitable times. Seems to work better in less liquid markets than more...
  17. M

    vastly inferior performance in positions in options versus positions in shares.

    Do you understand options synthetics? Long a 80 delta call is same as long stock and long 20 delta put. Is that what you want? Also high delta options have wider spreads and more slippage.
  18. M

    Narrowest spread instruments for trading

    I have traded futures since 2005. I have never seen a pro use a exchange supported stop. Ever. I have never used a market order. I don't belive my front end supports them. Please keep using stop market orders. I love when they execute.
  19. M

    Narrowest spread instruments for trading

    Never use a market order. Use a limit order at worst price you will accept.
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