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For the third time this week I am buying booze for the next month

Truly sorry to hear that :(

It would be hard to see how shutting down all economic activity will "save the economy" and "restore trust in the free markets". The times when something like this was done, nothing good came out of it. A fairly short market shutdown in 2001 resulted a calamitous week of selling. However, due to...

That would truly destroy the economy and the society, as we are probably talking 50-60% decline in GDP. With a self-created depression, the trust in democracy and the free markets will be lost for generations. If the choice is binary, it might be preferable to let the weak and elderly die out...

I am sure if you were part of the group with the risk factors (elderly or/and with preexisting conditions), you would sound very different. You'd also sound very different if you had clsoe relatives within those risk groups. The idea of the society is that we pool our resources together and...

You were talking about the case fatality rates, they are roughly consistent between the NYC and Wuhan. FWIW, NYC can not enforce the same total lockdown as Wuhan did and we are going to see higher total number of cases. Totalitarian regimes are good at repressing the population, try to institute...

Exactly. It’s why the media is so hard at work to convince the groups without the risk factors that they are somehow involved. This is wartime and as they say, “truth is the first casualty”. It’s a tricky job. If one is a millennial with no comorbidities, the health risks are pretty...

I am not trying to diminish the seriousness of situation, but there is a lot of statistical fallacies there even before we get to the point of manipulation by omission (e.g. NYC report page below used to show deaths by age group and it does not any more)...

How's that? As of 4 pm yesterday, the NYC had 26,697 cases that resulted in 450 deaths. That's consistent with the Chinese numbers, if anything it's a little lower. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf As a side note, I have noticed that NYC has...

Yup. I use a lot of flow related signals. My infrastructure is not good enough to compete with the « pro boys », so my flow signals are a bit longer term and a bit more tricky to calculate. It still gets reported and can be accounted for, just not as quickly as in lit markets. It gets even more...

This is called trade pressure, i.e. fraction of trades that printed at the bid or at the offer. The underlying assumption is that aggressive flow is longer term liquid takers. Most reasonable barred data providers will have something like this included in the dataset or you can generate...

Mennyt Kalaan

Frankly, it's unclear if some of the high ranking leaders are actually literate :(

Infamous? :D Sounds just like me. But you're welcome. I am heading to bed and will write something comprehensive tomorrow (no promises, sadly). The general idea is that if you can't trade variance swaps, understanding what variance players are doing will help you with a few things: (a) what...

FWIW, Bloomberg has an article today: Covid-19 Is Becoming the Disease That Divides Us: By Race, Class and Age https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/covid-19-divides-u-s-society-by-race-class-and-age

Nobody is saying that younger people are invincible, but they hospitalized, require intensive care or die at much lower rates (and it's well known, too). That feeds the perception among the younger crowd that this is an old peoples illness but younger people are paying for it. No infectious...

Well, considering that majority of deaths are in vulnerable patients (ages of 65+ with multiple pre-existing conditions), it would sure looks this way to a lot of people. This is especially important given the perception that old people run this country and have most of the money. People who...

Everyone is a libertarian when their lives do not do not depend it. The very same 70-year-olds just a few years ago were screaming bloody murder when someone said anything about helping other unfortunates. Rants about "lazy millennials" were "the thing" just very recently and any proposals to...

I have no idea, that. However, if I were a millennial getting laid off and indebted because the government wants to protect the lives of people over seventy, I'd be ready to riot. Or, more likely, they will say "fuck you" to all debts and obligations they have at the moment. E.g. if the...

ET is not known for nuance, but this thread shows a very important trend in public perspective. Basically, at the moment there is a very strong perception among the population that we are sacrificing the future of the younger generations for the boomers. Saving boomers and, given the economic...