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And don't forget the charts made in matlab....and not with one of these numerous poor charting software...

The problem in finance and trading is that the number of data is quite limited if you work with daily data. Once you have collected enough data to obtain a good statistical indicator, you don't have enough left to prove significance. In that case you have no other choice than working with high...

The problem with whatever statistics you use is that you are always... late. To succeed in trading, you mainly need specific criterions to heop you take a decision in the minute. Statistics are of great help when it comes to valuing what/which criterion is useful or not.

Where did I use normal distribution in my reasoning ? What you said in your first post is exactly the same as if I say the following : "Everytime today's temperature is over yesterday's temperature, I have eaten pasta for lunch, I got up at 7AM and did not have a shag before leaving to work...

OK, I say it clearly : YOU HAVE NOT A CLUE IN BASIC STATISTICS. Please stop using words you don't even understand, even 'normal distribution'.

If I understand right, I used normal distribution in my reasoning and Mandelbrot is the king of fat tails...it says it all.

Which is exactly what I say : your 99.5% statement has no statistical significance...

Let me state it another way. Just to say "99.5%" means that 1 out of 200 times when you meet such a pattern, market is going up rather than down. Out of 400 days of data, this means it happened twice if the pattern actually appeared 400 times, i.e. "every day".... As it sure does not, you cannot...

How can you give a number as precise as 99.5% with 400 days of data ?

Yeah I know cryptoanalysis quite well, I am now responsible for such a unit in the army. I will have a look if I can find the name of the mathematics topics. DES has been cracked a long time ago (97-98 if I remember right). I think you are refering to the method developed by these two...

Perhaps things will change quickly with some mathematics concept whose name escape from me at the moment.

Typical beginner. Started on this site in january...away in march, back to McDonald. Bye bye

Good to hear you bought Enron... Buying the dips is like selling options (put) in this case. Steady returns....till when...

Profit or Healing Not everyone says scientists should spend time and money plumbing the brains of traders and consumers. Neurofinance research ties up expensive medical equipment that should be used to heal people, says Gary Ruskin, executive director of Commercial Alert, a Portland...

Black Box Scientists don't know how these billions of neurons give rise to consciousness and coordinated behavior. They don't understand the brain's electrochemistry. They've yet to determine how genes and experience, nature and nurture, shape the brain. One August afternoon, as the...

New Frontier This controversial field, called neurofinance, may represent the next great frontier on Wall Street, says Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics for his pioneering work in behavioral finance, which fuses classical economic theory and studies of human...

From http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=amJen.RBuJgg&refer=us Brain Scans of Traders Show Link Between Lust for Sex and Money Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Late at night, in a basement laboratory at Stanford University, Brian Knutson made a startling discovery: Our brains lust...

...and a presentation written in Latex using the beamer class. I love it... :)

Yep, I meant as a percentage of whole portfolio. I never overtook -3% for the moment. But as I said it, touching such a threshold would mean there is a technical problem more than a trading problem.

In that case it is another risk management tool : model and operative risk. It lets me know (mail/phone/SMS) when a certain limit of losses is reached (typically something like a loss of 10-15%, and it blocks everything at something like a loss of 20-30%. Of course these numbers depend on...