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ETH +80% and BTC +30% from the lows...feels good to trade a ponzi

that's the issue. Retail hedging is always expressed as the desire to keep the upside intact but don't lose anything as soon as the market ticks down. In reality, however, hedging is muting one or more risk factors in order to single in on the one that you think is mispriced. You do that to be...

OP was presenting hedging strategies. All of them are bad. I trade derivatives for a living and was presenting an alternative. This has nothing to do with making money, because there is no edge in a hedge. I don't care about your P/L as you shouldn't care about mine

Sorry, I'm living in a derivatives bubble^^ To be clear, you want to sell something that everyone is buying when betting on downside or "hedging", which is the 25 delta put. You receive a premium and now you run to buy as many 5 delta (or 3 or 1 delta) puts as you possibly can while staying...

all three are really bad hedges against market downturns 1. Puts have a risk premium for correlation and gamma, so you'll overpay for them 2. short position on index futures is not a hedge since it completely neutralizes your delta 3. VIX futures have a gammut of secondary order risk The best...

let him. He's our official forum clown

Perhaps we're talking about the same: You want to look at the log return of close(-30->30 days ago) and close(-29), then the close(-29d) and close(-28), then close (-28) and close(-27), and so on and so forth until you arrive at log(close(-1)) - log(close(0->today)). You square them up, divide...

the question is: can you sell it at 2%? Second, french gov bonds trade at 1.8% yield for the 10y. IMHO the 20bps is just the dealer spread.

Let's make an example with 30 day realized vol. You take the log return of yesterdays close vs todays close of the last 30 days. You square them, sum them up, divide them by 30 and take the square root. That gives you the annualized realized vol for the 30 day bucket...an average of the log...

good lord...did you really confuse probability of strike touch and a no touch option? https://optionalpha.com/lessons/probability-of-profit-vs-probability-of-touch#:~:text=Probability of touch is the,not stay at that level.

and? Does this have anything to do with vanilla options? I think you're mixing up the lingo XD

I said, back to your sandbox...you have a couple of years of simulator ahead of you to understand what we're talking about here

Already disqualified. Go back to your sandbox and speak up when you learned options 101

Just read the posts, everything is already layed out. Elaborating further would be casting pearls before swine in your case

Honestly dude, you're going through some tough shit right now and the last thing you want to do is trade. Really. I do understand that you want to distract yourself from all this stuff by going back to your old life, but don't. You'll be back to full size quicker that you'd think and when...

it doesn't matter how you formulate it. You are betting against (short option) or on (long option) a strike touch. When you trade vol (or longer term options for that matter) you are betting on the fact that the market moves less (short option) or more (long option) than the options imply by...

Everything you just described is just a bet on strike touch (or no strike touch) aka. " I bet that the index does not touch my short strike" Nothing here is a vega or theta/gamma play. And no, your longs won't limit the loss. Unless you're thinking about a nuke against your position, you're...

The BS - model is calculated with daily granularity in mind, so unless you recalibrate it to intraday data, you won't get much out of it. Daily options are a pure gamma play, because they don't have much optionality left. If an option is worth 5$ now but 0.5% up it's worth 500$ and 0.5% down...

no reason to trade this stuff

If that is your argument, Bitcoin would have been the best bet overall. It went from a sub 100$ asset to an over 60k$ asset and you would have profited in a way that allowed you to retire in 2017. You could have traded any asset back and forth and made money this way but you're cherry picking...