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This is the heart of the issue - how many trade do you need to make to make a real statistically significant decision as to whether your system works or not? And not just works now, but worked last year, with different pairs etc. Maybe 20 is enough, maybe if its a small edge you need 1000's...

You seem to be taking trading seriously and your plan has lots of good intentions. Perhaps like a list of new years resolutions. You seem pretty new to this so time will tell if you can keep to them and not panic when the shit really hits the fan. I've never done, and don't intend to do FX...

Brief bio - I’ve been buying and selling stocks since the late 1990’s but only started to take it seriously around 2007. Read all the classic investment and trader books since then. At the time I thought it was a terrible time to start, just before the financial crisis, but in hindsight...

The -2.9 gdp was real but so we're the 1st quarter earnings. It was a bit chilly at the start of year. At some point I will go short but not whilst employment is going down and we have a positive yield curve. Go with the flow :)

Think you have done the right thing getting out. I wouldnt want to bet a large amount on having a >10% correction before the year is out. Too many people, myself included, still prepared to buy the dip provided earnings keep doing OK, the rest is just noise.

Gamblingman - its been interesting reading through all this. Whats your plan with the S&P short now? keep rolling it over? What size drop do you need to make your money back, 5% or more like 20%? Being short the S&P must be exceptionally difficult psychologically. Probability (based on past...