Search results

Dramatic share price rises sometimes occur when financial results are released. You can see these dates in advance. One way to trade these is to take a long position well before the results date - prices sometimes run up dramatically 5-10 days in advance of the release date, especially with...

Good to also visualise what new traders typically believe about trading and then avoid doing what they do. Typically they will assume that trading must be done from reversal levels and intra-day. These beliefs drive them down familiar rabbit-holes which just lead to losses and eventually wipe-out.

The index value will rise over a multi-decades period. An investment in the index value for less than this is guess-work. Alternatively, trade in and out on the long-side only on a multi-day time-frame.

I spend little time looking at charts. I have a list of features I want to see in my ideal set-up for a trade. A couple of these are mandatory and if those 2 or 3 are not present I stop looking any further. For the remaining potential targets, for each feature that is present I award 1 to 3...

You have a very polarised view of the markets. While its true that the losing traders pay for your profits, neither you nor the intermediaries make them lose. The losing traders are the swimmers who swim out to sea and drown. You're the swimmer who swam out and came back having speared a fish...

I'm cynical enough to think you could be right in certain circumstances. But for the world as it is today brokers don't need to cheat their private retail clients out of winning positions as long as their clients have such dumb behaviour patterns.

When most traders are losing money, its interesting to know what most traders are doing. New traders generally start with two assumptions of what trading involves - 1. day-trading 2. trading price reversals These are unfounded for these chaps at this stage for them and tend to lead them...

I agree with the conclusion that usually a 60-40 or greater imbalance of trader positions usually means the majority side have the direction wrong. But I don't agree that these guys were right until they were made wrong by the broker. These traders were already wrong when they went in. Its...

Relying on candlestick patterns like these on such a short time-frame is high risk. However, an inverted hammer is often called a shooting star and has a reputation as a bearish reversal signal if it occurs in an uptrend. My opinion is this title is way too optimistic as most reversals don't...

Thanks for this example. I'm not at all sure how hedge funds traded in 2007 but I'm pretty sure I don't trade that way and never have so I don't know what edge they had which unexpectedly failed. If this is all we have to worry about, I don't think we need to worry. You might have gathered...

Why not seek out a public speaking group? If you don't find one, start one up.

I'd like to see on a chart a point in time when a market changed in some way to eliminate a strategy edge.

I did think at one time of using sentiment as an inverse indicator - most traders are losing money so taking the opposite direction should be a good start. But I found that most of the time the direction indicated simply repeated the prevailing trends. It seems that most traders will go short...

The saying, timing the market, is far too vague to be useful. Therefore its vague enough to be denied. Be realistic with specific outcomes over defined time periods. Its like forecasting the weather. Obviously nobody in the middle of winter can predict the weather on a date 6 months ahead. But...

I meant Lynch, not Villeneuve.

I was a great fan of the books and enjoyed the Villeneuve film. The last thing I need is a copy of a ground-breaking film I already saw, but which is not ground-breaking. Same as I don't want to spend my time listening to tribute bands.

Sounds like you've found your strategy.........

For most traders, there is not going to be a free choice between low and high values for these parameters. Firstly, the strategy determines what you will get out of it. Its hardly credible that some tactics could be simply ramped up at will to boost one or the other. This would just cause the...

To be certain your edge is fading it is vital to understand firstly what is your edge and how it works. This will almost certainly tell you why it would fade. However, I side more with the belief that true edges don't fade but lucky trading always does.

Not everyone wants a top and bottom indicator........