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It is remarkable.... Are there any OTC options on your 100k quest ? :)

Fine, keep us posted about the blog.

You really hate the guy he? Gonna be a matter of minutes before Ice jumps in to punish you and here we go again. I do appreciate Multi's journal.

This thread is completely off-course with no one to blame. Everyone deserves his say but for me with limited time to sift through so many messages takes out the fun. Imagine the man's own last message is 5 pages back! No offense please and no need to discuss this. I hope folks...

dummy-variable, can you recommend any reading materials about serious money management? Not the “soft” side (“set your stops, cut your losses, let your profits run…“) but some hard math, statistics & probability theory related to various calculations you make and e.g. to your quote...

So welcome back! Could you post some charts as they apply to PEET right now ?

Very harsh but I'm afraid you're right. He shouldn't go into hiding now things go against him. I'm still hoping for a miracle, and I mean MULTI's comeback, regardless of PEET!

In case The Man is secretly watching: Multi, --NOW-- is the time to share your thoughts and show what sets you apart from me, at least in these high stake games. If those 40 contracts were mine I'd be on my knees, if not praying then next to the bowl still throwing up after I bailed out...

Your re-cap sounds good! Perhaps at least being able to pinpoint the specific uncertainties is not so bad. Especially in most techie stuff (un)certainties can be determined only through backtesting. The BASIS for most of that stuff is just some vague intuition (an exception for things based on...

Well, I’m not so sure about myself. :) Do you mean that quotes will (auto-)adjust in all strikes and expirations to prevent arbitrage possibilities? If so, yes in general it makes no sense to pick an arbitrary option series, check for change in IV and draw any conclusions about...

OK, but why not?

No, just that it doesn't seem to work for me. But I'm very open minded especially if it turns out to work for you. :)

Multi, appreciate your insight into your option philosophy. I'm skeptical, but still front row. Seems you walk the walk. If I could borrow your line there then I could write it: My strategy after many years of MACD, Stochastics and other crappy strategies......... (that’s only MY...

One note: I DO of course check all strikes and expirations for any obvious spread positions.

The lady who initiated the trade is who matters. Sometimes. Like when she wanted her position so bad that things get out of whack. One way to make an educated guess about her intentions is to compare today’s openint and implvol with yesterday’s. Add call or put gives 8 scenarios, for...

wabrew is hooked.... :D

To check out the option market can at least be an additional factor. Like in the SEBL example, if hypothetically I would have considered a bearish position and find someone willing to risk 50k on OTM calls 1 week before expiration, I might postpone a week. No matter how you slice it, the calls...

As you probably know ivolatility's IV index is a weighted average of several strikes and expirations. Doesn't tell you much about activity in one specific series. If I'm not mistaken they only use near-the-money strikes so it seems unlikely in the SEBL case the spike was caused by the 10 call...

How did you measure the IV spike? A 5¢ option with 1 week to go has little IV value. In general eod I switched from using bid/ask average to ask because too often even the avg is below intrinsic value. What do you use, and do you measure eod or real time ?

Was that SGQIB 10 call? After the fact of course seems no coincidence, whether or not this would be reason to act upon then, hard to say..... If at all I personally would have moved to Oct, that's for sure. But in this case eod analysis would have been too late anyway. Any news about an...