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The combination of taxes and inflation is a significant hurdle for traders. What counts is the real inflation not some bogus CPI number here. If your pocket book feels a 5% inflation and you are taxed at 50% you need 10% return just to break even in term of purchasing power. A long term...

Do you think the monetary and fiscal policy would improve if FRB members and members of congress were required to have their net worth parked in FRNotes for the duration of their service? In the corporate world it is common to incentivize CEOs and key employees with stock or stock options...

No tin foil needed. Just check out Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988 by United States President Ronald Reagan.

Not that long ago people would laugh if you mentioned the existence of a PPT.

I was quick to dismiss weird theories when I was younger. After living for a while you notice many of the previous theories become fact. Schopenhauer said it best. All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as...

Money has been sea shells, atoms of gold or electronic bits at one time or another. It did not stop politicians from spending other peoples money. Keynes is a dream come true for those feeding at the spending trough and a nightmare from hell for those bearing the debasement burden. In...

Thanks a lot. That answers it.

I see the following closing times for the sp after the 87 crash in my database: date(yyyymmdd) closingTime(hhmm) 19871016 1615 19871019 1615 19871020 1615 19871021 1615 19871022 1615 19871023 1400 19871026 1400 19871027 1400 19871028 1400 19871029 1400 19871030 1400 19871102 1430...

People would rather believe a lie from an expert than their own eyes if there is some thinking involved.

There is persistence in outperforming managers. If you cannot pick stocks, it may be worth finding someone who can. Or just get an index fund.

When you say hedged, you mean being long a straddle ? (like short 1 future long 2 atm calls)

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” ― Mark Twain

Interesting study. So trend following does not work in markets under heavy intervention, and such interventionist periods can last a long time. That 200 year chart of the debt/GDP has peaks associated with the revolutionary war, civil war, ww1 and ww2. Given the recent ramp up, who are we...

In the begining you had the alpha monkey imposing his will with a big stick. It is more civilized to get others to do your bidding in exchange for carrots, and use a big stick to corner the carrot market.

99.99...% of the people that died last year have eaten carrots.

Deflation is incompatible with printing money for your friends.

Some news are smart money looking for an exit, others are genuine and yet to be priced in. In time it gets easier to sort them out.

Ben euthanized the bond vigilantes first. Then the short sellers. Now it looks like the trend followers turn. I wonder who is next.

When you have a market participant that prints out of thin air the money it uses to trade, what does it mean exactly when they have a trading loss. Is it not simply printing a bunch of money and shipping it into the trading counterparty reserve account?

Michael, say I am a believer and would like to follow in Dunn's footsteps. Looking at his track record published on your website, I need to find a backer that will not pull the plug in a 60% drawdown of many years in legth. More recently it looks like a 10 year long drawdown. Do you think...