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  1. M

    Why doesn't everybody just short VXX?

    I guess there are more shares available now. But also much later in the cycle.
  2. M

    Why doesn't everybody just short VXX?

    Used to short it 7-8 years ago. Then the cost to borrow got so high, all profits went to the loan desk. Not worth it.
  3. M

    Fewer than 5% of top-tier bank traders have Sharpe ratios > 3

    From the info you gave it is not possible to figure out the sharpe. However, one can guess a lower bound for your sortino which is a better metric anyway. Your daily vol is < 1% (-1.4%, 0%, -1.4%, 0% ... gives max daily vol), daily return is 75%/252 = 0.29% and daily sortino is > 0.29%/1% =...
  4. M

    Can you afford to help your kid start a business?

    The young baron is smarter than you give him credit for. He understands the importance of controlling the root cause (people's thinking) that has as effect the way the world works.
  5. M

    What lessons did you learn in 2017 that improved your trading?

    Vacations always have an opportunity cost that is orders of magnitude more than the actual cost.
  6. M

    Printing Money

    We should both ask ourselves, who are we really? Useful idiots, brainwashed blind faithful, sycophants, intellectual mercenaries or genuine truth seekers? I will not try to convince you of anything because people believe what they want to believe. Only through their own thinking a change comes...
  7. M

    Printing Money

    Sure. And any vampire will tell you that a daily dose of bloodletting is necessary for your health.
  8. M

    The Best Trading Proverbs

    "World ain't what it seems is it, Gunny? The moment you think you got it figured, you're wrong." Mr. Rate
  9. M

    Strategy selection as function of correlation / sharpe ratio

    If you put some confidence intervals on your correlation estimates I suspect the difference between a 0.0 and -0.1 is meaningless. This, together with the high correlation between S2 and S3 suggests that they try to capture the same juice, (perhaps two implementations of the same idea?). Merge...
  10. M

    Trump's 'Space Force' could fuel a new $1 trillion economy, Morgan Stanley says

    Maybe it will bring back the proper chain of command over the unacknowledged special access programs.
  11. M

    So, what is the end game with this never-ending U.S. public debt?

    It was not my intention to hide the date of the message. Anyone semiconscious with an internet connection can find that out. If you are fully conscious it should be food for thought.
  12. M

    Risk Analysis - Critique

    Keep doing what you're doing. Too short a record for now. If you can keep the same numbers for a couple of business cycles it would be market wizard caliber.
  13. M

    LOW STAKES POKER

    These tables are filled with calling stations so tight play is rewarded. Play several tables at once cause it gets boring waiting for good hands.
  14. M

    8 Dead in Texas School Shooting

    In Switzerland they have mandatory military service, and everyone has their weapons at home. Basically everyone is armed. We don't hear much about school shootings in Switzerland so it cannot be gun ownership.
  15. M

    What is the point of living?

    I liked what a very old and wise guy had to say about this: "Consciousness related evolution is the real meaning of life. The universe is already very very old and everything took its time to come into being, even human life. The begining is the cause from which the effect came about. It's the...
  16. M

    Simple trading model that generates an average of 14% per year

    I looked at how the unlevered rule did in the S&P starting with 1928 up to now. Not bad for such a simple rule when compared to a simple buy and hold of the index. The downsides I see: many more taxable events and missing one third of the dividends (the strategy is long roughly 2/3 of the time)...
  17. M

    how to understand Al Brooks

    Both the mayan priests and modern astronomers could predict eclipses perfectly. While the former used a cornucopia of magical thinking rules and exceptions, the later use one equation. Is understanding Al Brooks similar to grasping the laws of gravity from a mayan priest tablet?
  18. M

    Is active trading a viable job for an individual?

    Your question contains the answer. A viable job requires domestication. Trading is for wolves.
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