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Nobody will ever share true edge. I milked the shit out of a risk free arb that few knew about some years back (took 20k to nearly 1m in 5 years), nobody would have paid me enough to reveal this cos it was free money to me. Anything that requires the trader to risk his money when he puts on a...

Yeah market breadth has been horrible for some time now, only a couple of large caps are holding up SPX now.

You certainly could. Its not any different from any other secured loan (your house is the collateral here), but you will not get this loan from a broker, you need to obtain it from a bank or something.

Not necessarily suicidal to short here, I'm still of the opinion that this thing is stuck between 1800 and 2100, 1940 is right smack in the middle of that range so the R/R for both short and long is about even here.

Exactly. Long term is what people care about when people talk about trading for a living.

We are talking about trading for a living, not trading for the best one month performance here, who the fuck cares if you make 200% a month unless you can do it with some consistency? Do you only pay rent when you make money? Or do you live in your mom's basement so that isn't an issue for you...

Man oh man are you trolling here or just plain stupid? Do you even know how compounding works? $2500 compounded monthly at 200% returns = 1.3 BILLION after just one year, so yes it will hit gazillions in under 10 years if you manage to make 200% every MONTH. Of course there is no such thing as...

You make 200% a month? Shouldn't you already be a gazillionaire by now?

Did you blow up again? I warned you about trading with such high leverage. It doesn't work, not unless you are an HFT anyway.

Not a dovish hike to me, median dot plots didn't move at all, fed still expects to hike 4 times next year vs the market's 2-3 times. Was expecting the dollar to dump hard but that didn't happen.

Interest payments definitely won't increase by 900b per year if rates go up by a quarter pt, only about a third of all outstanding treasuries need to be rolled over each year, the increase in interest payments would probably amount to no more than 40b per year.

Hike is a done deal unless the dow crashes 1000pts before FOMC. What is going to matter is whether the fed is going to bring down their forecast of future fed funds rate a.k.a median dot plot. I'm going to stay the hell away from this because I know the bots will be trading this as the dot...

We are still trading in a range though (1800-2100), we are currently closer to the top of the range so the fed isn't going to panic.

This is just bond bears taking profits. Implied probability of a hike is close to 80% according to FF futures, thats sufficient for the fed to pull the trigger, the market would be shocked if we didn't get one. Of course things might change if the stock market crashes next week, but these 2%...

Looks like the dollar got smashed a week before FOMC. :mad:

The fed will move this month, its a certainty. Fed fund futures has it priced that way and its likely to stay that way with less than a week away from the next FOMC. Unless the stock market crashes the fed will move next week. But all that has been priced in, what is unknown is if the fed will...

2yr note yield nearing 1%, everything is getting slammed as interest rates move higher.

And he probably paid way more than 1.5 ES pts per week in commissions and slippage this entire time. Goes to show that a very good edge is necessary to overcome frictional cost when you trade frequently.

Exactly. They keep markets in check just by talking about it. The smart money unload when the suckers start believing that higher rates are good for stocks, and they buy when the same group of people start talking about ZIRP forever and recession. The reality is that this is a market thats...

Bonds barely got any bids today even though stocks got dumped hard, so it seems to me that the asset managers who dumped bonds for stocks have not capitulated, they are very comfortable with the stocks they bought at recent highs. :rolleyes: