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1800 is a long way down from current levels. Pity the people who got suckered into buying SPX 2100 yet again.

Perilously close to breaking down, a 20 pts sell off today ought to do it.

ES looks extremely toppish near 2100 but the Fed isn't backing off from all that dovish talk, have they finally given up trying to rein in risk with hawkish talk?

You are undercapitalised if you need to withdraw money from your account to meet month-to-month expenses. But you probably already know that by now.

Strip those out... yea just exactly how is that supposed to happen? Company execs aren't going to stop borrowing money to buy back stocks as long as interest rates remain low, or negative in some circumstances, and the fed isn't going to stop supporting this market either.

What is more likely now is this thing is going back to 1800s, beyond that, who knows?

It will stop at 1800 again until proven otherwise. Nobody can predict a breakout before it happens.

Its not really dangerous as long as the fed isn't thinking of hiking again, stocks are inexpensive relative to bond yields that are ultra low now, there isn't a whole lot of motivation for fund managers to move to cash or bonds when returns in these assets are non-existent.

This is a sideways ranging market, neither bull or bear. Like I said this thing is stuck between 1800 and 2100 until proven otherwise, we will most certainly get more suckers thinking this is going to 1500 when we get to 1800s again.

Your edge is not good enough to overcome frictional cost, simple as that.

So we are back to the center of the range again... bears who did not take their profits at 1800 now face losses should this thing make a run for 2100 again.

Aren't you essentially flat if you go long right now with a same bet size?

And you didn't cover the short at 1800 because you were targeting 1700, so you were in effect risking 159 pts of profit for an additional 100 pts, I'm assuming you have no trailing stop because you had none the last time.

It will much more interesting if you actually read our convo carefully before jumping in like that. 1. We know what his plan is. 2. Yes we know how to read a monthly ES chart. 3. We don't agree with his plan because 1700 doesn't look like a good target, not on the monthly or daily, but more...

Got to agree. Risking 200+ pts for 100 pts isn't a good trade, if your target is only 1700 (which doesn't make much sense to me since 1800 is major support) then 1800 is a good place to take your money and run. SPX is still trading within a well defined 1800 - 2100 range, sure it could bust thru...

Probably not going to see a pullback today, its almost a mirror of yesterday's chart, one way street till the bulls/bears blow up at the close. Not going to watch this anymore, its agonising to say the least.

Damn I had huge buy orders at ES 1860 - 1865 but this thing took off after tagging 1871, bloody front runners. I think this goes all the way back above 2k now, like I said range bound.

Which will most likely be met with massive buying again, this is still range bound until proven otherwise.

Risk management is not an edge, its a basic trading skill. Anyone can learn to place an entry and a stop or trade size that isn't too big for his account, but that alone will never guarantee success, you need to know where to place the entry and the stop, a trader who is able to do that...

There were tons of market inefficiencies in the 80s and 90s, I think clubberlang wrote about this somewhere on ET, it was the wild west back then, anyone who was smart enough to exploit those efficiencies became fabulously rich. Btw I don't think technical analysis still gives anyone an edge...