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so you dont trust the statistical evidence that supports probability? like if theoretically speaking, if you can collect at min $35 from every spread with a 60% chance and a 40% chance of losing $50, you will come out on top, marginally. 60x35 =2100 40x50=2000 and the reverse probabilities...

bah ignore the last few posts. i wasnt thinming properly about the calc. @ work atm.

that maybe so, but don johnson has consistently beaten casinos using his probabilities. I thinj he was a mathematician of some sort. you should look him up.

ok so example TZA @13.50, IV=0.53 expiration 7 days, 1std: $1 debit spread sell 13.0 call - 1.64 buy 12.50 call - 1.99 est probability success apprpx 60%? this seems like good odds no?

do you have any suggestions on what i can do to make this work? or what you would do? when you say expectations are you referring to market direction?

yeah but you can pick your probabilities, thats your edge no? for example, if you bought a debit spread with a 40% of success with a 1:1 pay out (bj pays 1:1 right?) and your loss is only half of that, then over time youll still be ahead no?

have you considered this before? on credit spreads, reduce your odds of success for a higher payout? with 40/60 odds you need at least 0.75 -1 payout vs loss.

If Don johnson can make millions off playing a card game with odds stacked against him, cant we do the same trading options? Hey uses probabilities and "edge" that he negotiated with the casino to get ahead. since options run on prpbabilities as well, cant we just do the same? for example, if...

from what i know they are last sales. right side is puts and left side is calls. far lefts column on respective sides are last sale. last 2-3 columns on right of respective sides are bid ask

wondering if I'm blind or is this trade too good to be true. TZA @13.60 current price Nov 28 13.50 CALL 1.15 Nov 28 13.50 PUT 0.4 This looks like an arbitrage risk free profit...or is bigcharts glitched out? http://postimg.org/image/8uca61pt5/ image URL

hey Dan, not sure if you'll respond to this, but I'm wondering if I'm blind or is this trade too good to be true. TZA @13.60 current price Nov 28 13.50 CALL 1.15 Nov 28 13.50 PUT 0.4 This looks like an arbitrage risk free profit...or is bigcharts glitched out...

past below your upper strike and through your lower strike or somewhere between.

why do you mention six figures?

@49, your call option expires worthless or you can sell it back at w.e the market rate for that contract is at expiration.

It depends. if its american or euro and the benefit depends what you spent on the contract. american: exercise contract any time. euro: exercise contract at expiration date only. your scenario, if the underlying is at $52 and you are at expiration with 1x 50 call contract. a) the contract...

Hey, just want some opinions on turning around a bull put position where the underlying has passed your upper strike. If my intention is to own the stock or I wouldnt mind owning it, my solution to this scenario is to sell the long put and wait to be put the stock, now at an even lower cost...

yup i feel the same way. good luck with your trading.

thanks for the recommendation.

i dont disagree and im also reading threads still. everyday is something new to read. do you have any recommended threads?

if you are a newbie, of course youll ask newbie questions.... tim sykes does it right (at least what he promotes himself as) some guys online etc. whether they are legit or not, its all speculation. from what you see though,is success in their lifestyle from trading and sometimes you just have...