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Gasoline demand down each of the last 6 weeks. 4 week moving average YOY demand growth 2/16/07 +3.81% 2/23/07 +3.58% 3/02/07 +3.34% 3/09/07 +2.77% 3/16/07 +2.10% 3/23/07 +1.60% Perhaps next week oil markets realize that contrary to the hype, that with refineries now back from...

The dollar will be a big winner at some point. Lets face it, the only reason people buy GOLD and other currencies is to some day come back and buy Dollars. Sentiment is against the dollar for some time, but ultimately there will be a flood of money into dollars because in the end everyone...

And remember, alot of the first time home buyers of last few years were really "renter" types but got lured into the hype that you have to buy a home to make money. Plus all the new zero down mortgage programs. Now that these folks see what a pain in the butt it is to be a homeowner, they...

Yes. When the 1.5 million foreclosures hit the market later in the year prices will fall to the next level and there could be a snow ball effect. More and more folks will walk away from their homes as they realize they have negative equity. Better to not pay mortgage and live "rent free"...

IBD 100 is a fools game. My experience is that the toughest way to make money in the market is to figure out when a hot stock might become even hotter or finally run out of steam. Sure the rewards are big if you get it right. But there are easier ways to make money in market with higher...

I remember the worst bear market i've ever seen Summer of 2002 - early 2003 which occured while fed funds were 1.75%!! On their way to 1%. I have feeling MOT will remind folks that low rates no good without EPS.

I'm thinking that lower commodity prices will be the way to get out of the next recession. Fiscal and monetary stimulus will be less effective then in last recession. Next time around things like cheap oil/gasoline might be the force that helps prop up a dead consumer.

This is an interesting article which points at reasons why we might expect the next recession to be much worse and more difficult to pull out of then the 2001-2002 recession. http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/03/13/the_next_recession.php This time around. (1) no housing bubble to...

Fed won't hike rates when mortgage bubble is in complete crash. Fed can't lower rates when unemployment is 4.5% and inflation is 2.7%. So Fed is on hold until either inflation drops, unemployment approaches 4.9%, or housing stabilizes. It really might be this simple.

1.5 million foreclosures this year. Home prices will fall alot by end of year as there will be nobody to buy these 1.5 million homes. Foreclosures are the equivalent to a market sell order for a thin stock in the amount of 1.5 million shares into weak s&p 500 futures. HUGE GAP DOWN for...

The fed can do little to reinflate the credit bubble that is bursting. They got us out of the 2003 recession by causing a housing bubble. This tool is now out of the arsenal. So how will the economy get out of the 2007-2008 recession? Commodities will crash including oil. $1.4 gasoline will...

Sell everything. This could be Great Depression II. How can things not be 10 times worse this summer when all the foreclosures begin to hit the market.

$4 dollars so far since the stock market meltdown began.

I'll say it again. 30year mortgage rates track long term gvt rates such as 10 year bond yield. 10 year bond yields havn't been that volatile so there hasn't been much volatility in 30 year fixed mortgage rates. Only ARM mortgages track what the fed does. ARM rates have moved way up as fed...

30-year fixed mortgages price off of the 10 year treasury yield not the fed funds rate. 10 year yield has only risen from abount 3.80% to 4.60% since fed funds were 1%. adjustable rate mortgage rates have risen much more as they are priced off of 1-12 month treasury rates. You could of...

CFC to stop offering zero down payment mortgages as of today. Not many people can afford to put 5% down on a $400,000 house that was $250,000 6 years ago. It was the ability to put no money down that helped push the $250k houses up to $400k. Now there will be few buyers. Houses will...

The foreclosures will start hitting big time this summer. That will drop home prices another 5%+. Common sense suggests this will drag an already slowing economy into recession. If some other cycles come together at same time it could get super ugly. Great depression II seems plausible...

The mortgage bubble is now in complete collapse. Scarry part is the foreclosures havn't even hit the market yet. This will start in ernest over the next 3-6 months. Banks will put homes on market at whatever the loan balance is with little concern over what the neighbors stale listings are...

joining in we are so far.

Better stop thinking and get your order in. Sinking fast.