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Yeah. I'm reviewing some of my previous end of year thoughts and making new ones. Boring Sat night.

Interestingly, someone pointed out that if home building stocks track the Dot Com washout, they should bottom around Feb 2008. Tech wreck lasted about 30 months. 30 months from Jul 2005 housing peak is Feb. makes sense, because stocks tend to look out 6 months and home sale comps should get...

the issue with MBI and ABK is not the compeitive landscape of the Muni insurance market. If PE's and profit margins on future business were the dominant issue, the stocks would be in the 50's and 60's. Its about capital raising and short raids and potential liability on CDO insurance...

ACA was never AAA. They were single A.

Todays news of Warren Buffett getting into the business is simply news of a incoming newcomer to a competitive marketplace.....nothing more nothing less. Of course his name recognition is enormous and that coupled with the recent string of negative headlines for the insurance sector produce...

YIkes. The Housing Crash is happening.

ABK was affirmed AAA with stable outlook by s&p. They have $55 in book value and another $30 in unearned premiums set to come in. My understanding is that they could just shut down and go into runoff and investors could get their money back. This is not a likely scenario. I see them getting...

the drop was rather ridiculous. It is already a very competitive market with many players. One more not going to make a diference. More importantly, Buffett operatin is very small with only $160 million investment and ony liscensed in one state. ABK and MBIA are already cutting back to...

This collection of dog stocks I believe has good chance to be up 50% in 2008. Here they are. Monday is last day of tax selling. IMB ($6.15) - This is a small CFC. It is trading at 25% of book value. I do not anticipate book value to fall below $16 and they already wrote everything...

GDP hovering right above zero and eanings are sucking and the Fed has already started cutting rates because of weak economy. So maybe the answer to your question is it already has!

I can see a Crash happening in the next 3 weeks. But it will feel like more of a crash in emerging markets than in the U.S. Stock Market. It will look like this. Euro $1.36. YEN 112 S&P 1480 Shanghai 4800. India/Austrail down 15% Carry trade favorites. PCU, BHP, RIO, AKS, X...

Now Cramer says HOV not going under. Thanks for the good prices Cramer!

The success of Hovnanian's sale of the century this weekend shows why the near term bankruptycy risk of publicly traded homebuilders is close to Zero. If they get into liquidity trouble, they can just cut prices and sell homes for slightly under cost or 15% under market value and sell out...

HB's are pricing in a high chance of Bankruptcy. A big rate cut will not make HB's profitable over the next 18 months, but may be enough to stabilize the situation and make people think real estate is not going to fall 30% and that HB's are not going to go bankrupt. With bankruptcy risk...

No. The end of driving season trade didn't work this year. It acutaly happened in July this year for whatever reason. Now inventories of gasoline are record lows and this SEPT spreads are much better than last Sept. There isn't much to do here long or short on refiners as they are well off...

That is same news as friday when default notices were given related to a their other bonds on friday. Same thing. My understanding is its a shake down to get money out of BZH. Same thing happened to KBH last year and KBH finally paid $16 million to bondholders to get a waiver. In BZH case...

While we getting on Cramer's case, here is one last one. He poo pooed subprime as being trivial all spring and summer and then it turned out to be the biggest story in the markets of the last 5 years. Actually i think Cramer is good. But when you make 1000's of calls you are going to wind...

Cramer loved HB's on one segment of his show in 2005 when he called them "Land Banks". Now after they fall 80% and are finally trading for a decent discount to the value of their land holdings, he is still scoffing at them against his play book which clearly says to buy them on the rate cuts...

One more prediction. Cramer will jump on board and take credit for any HB rally. Just as he did on every bounce in the builders on the way down. This is similar call to his don't buy OIH until 115 last AUG. Well it never got there and now he trumpeting SLB all way up to $100. The BZH...

Ok, i'm holding Cramer to his call he is making tonight. 1 week before the fed meeting which is expected to mark the start of the easing cycle, He is calling for the HGX to fall another 15%. I have the other side of the trade on. I'm using Cramer's own playbook (why he is ignoring it now i...