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  1. danielc1

    10 months fulltime and still no edge

    The average proces to be good in a 'profession' is about 5,68 years( doctors, lawyers, engineers, and so on) if you 'work' on it 8 hours a day... Why would trading be any different?
  2. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Next step: using money management to meet your objectives. Here it is important to know what you want in terms of 'drawdown' and 'ROI'. If risking 1% of your capital in our example gives you during a monte carlo simulation a bigger drawdown then you want to endure, then you know you have to...
  3. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    I see that I have had the equity chart up without the end capital adjustment of the first period... Here is the 'correct' one
  4. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    The remark about hindsight is a very good remark. It is a trap for most 'newbies' in system design. The most important thing that can help you against hindsight is doing manual labor and going back in time, trade by trade with your rules of your system and market filters and only use the data...
  5. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Not in this case: You use the 'prior' months reading to turn your system on or off...
  6. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Report of the second period.
  7. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Equity chart of our second go period. I have put in the end capital of the first period to have a compound result in total dollars...
  8. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Report of first go period
  9. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    You see that the long flat period is exaclty the same time where there was a 'bear' market. Now in our case it did not realy hurt our equity, but that is pure 'luck'. It could easy been a drawdown on your equity in that period. Now, lets use our marketfilter. The first go period is from 98...
  10. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Report without marketfilter from 98 untill now.
  11. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    You can see that the equity chart was in a drawdown from '88 untill '98. This is because AAPL, our test symbol, was not realy in a 'bull' mode in that period. You maybe will not notice because of the logaritme(or lack of it)scale of the equity chart, but also in that drawdown period there where...
  12. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Before I go on money management, I will show how important it is to use a market filter for any system. The money management calculation I have used in this example is to risk 1% of the equity($25000) in every new trade. Pretty simple... I have programmed the system for daily bars in...
  13. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    The trade of the intraday chart has hit the stop of $95.17 and is closed out. This is of course all 'theoreticall' and does not account slipage and commision... But in real life trading you have to take this in account of course. Also notice that you have a new signal intraday later on in the...
  14. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Next step: determine risk and how much you are going to risk in each trade aka money management. Before I begin, there are endless combinations, but for this example I'm going to use a straight forward approach: On the daily graph you have an entry at $107.40 and a first initial stop at...
  15. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    As you can see on the graph's, there are multiple 'entry' points during our condition of what a trend is... That is good. You need multiple 'entry' points in case you get stoped out. On a daily graph you have not yet a realy run up that makes everything all 'right'. The first trade in our...
  16. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    5 min graph
  17. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Now because we have picked a stock, there are a few more things that you must consider before using a trend system in 'both' directions. A stock market can be in a bull market or bear market. If you are not a day trader, I would use a month graph of the stock plus a 9 period simple moving...
  18. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Aapl it is...
  19. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    Okay, lets go some what further. I would like a suggestion on a symbol for our example. A stock symbol or a future symbol...
  20. danielc1

    Example: How to make an mechanical system.

    'Any' time frame can do... It depends if the underlying show trendiness behavior in the past on the specified time frame. The best way is to open a chart and 'see' how the underlying has behaved in the past when our trend condition has been met. There are some indicators you can use to determine...
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