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You will know the answer by the fifth one. Statistically speaking, by the Fisherian convention adopted throughout science, the fifth consecutive correct call will not be consistent with the 'random dart' model (i.e. with the null hypothesis of no predictive power, using the standard 5%...

But surely, as employees of state-owned US exchanges we can be made to extend capital to bad zombie companies, rather than cutting them short. Just like the employees of state-owned Chinese banks were forced to extend loans to companies during a recession to orchestrate a nice rally on the...

And yours is a great explanation if I may say so. That difficulty to locate and high financing cost gives their shorting game away rather clearly in June 2.5 and 5 conversions... hardly straight lines, are they? The degree of inefficiency not seen since 2007... Double-digit riskless gains for...

Actually, tracking hedge fund *indices* seems to be the first sensible attempt to produce an actively managed ETF. And its portfolio is UCITS-compliant too, i.e. much safer than American LLC's. No Madoff schemes possible here: independent regulator-approved onshore fund administrators are...

Perhaps you should experiment with some other momentum measures, among which you may find even more leading indicators... But as for VXX - please note it is a VIX futures tracker. Yeah, a promissory note on a futures strip on an index of implied volatility of an options strip struck on an...

I would like to I ask all those affected by the proposed stock transaction tax to kindly lend their names to our common cause and present some alternative tax ideas, such as the one presented below (with any changes you find necessary) to your favorite pressure group, including possibly: -...

Excellent points there. I might have made some of them myself ;) They forgot the retail traders providing capital to expensive Forex platforms rather than to real companies and a rise in mutual funds expense ratios eating up any value added by these institutions (that elusive 1% alpha is less...

... as increases in mutual fund expenses. It is even possible to estimate losses to an average American investor. Take an emerging European country, Poland, where a memebership fee charged to exchange members (broker-dealers) is a 'mere' 3 basis points (see [1]), i.e. at the level of American...

... we shall certainly do so in our densely populated EU. Where if one looks really well, similar cars from bygone era can still be found in some rural areas of the new EU member countries. Trabis and Fiats 126 - the remnants of the communist experiments with mass motorization... but vastly...

I suppose all simulated orders, including non-native stops, do not work in such cases? It may an expensive lesson to some, but a necessary one for long-term survival, if it encourages fail-safe risk control practices, such as ridiculously short-lived GTD opening orders, static hedging, and...

... and can cost even more if they do not backpedal the new 'safeguards' which have been silently introduced into TWS*... apparently on lawyers' commands. So far (after 1 day) I have noticed two undocumented changes directly related to this debacle: the blinking 'Trades' icon (which is fine)...

That would be true when moving from monthly to quarterly time frames or longer. But for any shorter time scales, volatility scaling laws are not necessarily range-contracting (risk / opportunity lowering). Short term (up to weekly) volatility and returns are highly serially correlated. And don't...

A perversely fascinating case study in market failure... Let us hope this drug actually beats the odds... and the researchers manage to raise capital despite the obvious lack of interest in the professional community... "There is no FDA-approved way to get there from here. Someday a...

The true killer - as usual - is well hidden beneath the vivid memories of plane and space shuttle crashes. It is not the overnight gaps/intraday jumps or infrastructure breakdowns that make the stop-loss fail. It is the daily shake-out/whipsaw... slowly but steadily adding to your bleed... the...

Dr Steenbarger's approach is simply more effective - solution focused brief therapy (SFBT) is the state of the art in psychology. Besides it is indeed brief - a couple of sessions is enough to have a lasting impact - forget those endless hours required by the traditional psychoanalysis...

Dr. Hussman does not trust the raging bull either: "Overvalued, overbought, and overbullish conditions have generally resulted in disappointing market returns, regardless of other features of market action. Yet the past several weeks have quietly added a new ingredient: Treasury Bill yields are...

Grant, skill and capital (in that order) are indeed the required conditions, but are still insufficient for starting a hedge fund business. You just got lucky with your domicile, Sir:) America is a vast land of opporunity compared to Europe. Here all business plans go straight to the wastebin...

Call me paranoid, but I think you should protect your intellectual property more. Perhaps it is possible to find proper "market neutral" financing - basically some guys/gals who have no clue about what you are doing? The less they are able, willing, and allowed to dabble in the markets...