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For what it's worth, I've traded each quite a bit, and my current addiction is the leveraged ETF's. But the way I make the distinction you point to in the original post is: do you want to trade a single stock, or a group of them. In other words, by futures, I'm going to assume you are...

Productivity is about how much time and energy must be invested in the accomplishment of a given task. A single individual human living today can get a hell of a lot more done with less of an investment of their time and energy than 20 years ago, or 30, or 50, or whatever. This is...

Seems to me the important part is productivity growth. And there has been, and will be, plenty of that.

Thoughts on the dollar in all of this mess: This is another interesting situation to me, and some have brought it up implicitly or explicitly in this thread. I have to say, sure I am a bit worried about inflation. But only because I'm worried that people are worried about inflation. The...

Yeah. That's the basic idea. The assumption would be that we've suffered a kind of trauma. And there will come a period when people simply aren't going to be able to be swept up in confidence and genuine commitment. Right now begins a period of protecting security and basic needs. The...

For the record, unemployment peaked in 1982, and the peak rate (about 11%) corresponded with the beginning of the new secular bull. See attached chart. That being said, I agree that many things appear to be worse now than in the 1970's, particularly when you think in terms of the likelihood...

Very nice chart (referring the chart posted by R.C at the bottom of page 2 of this thread). In fact, there's something there that I find absolutely striking, but it takes a small adjustment. If you slide the red line back about 45 days and align it with the blue line - in other words, if you...

In the most plain terms, most assets are priced in dollars. $60/share means that each share costs 60 dollars. It's a coefficient in the numerator of an equation. (60 * dollar)/ 1 share = stock's value If "stock's value" is held constant, then a decrease in the dollar means you have to have...

I agree completely... I have also been following this correlation. It seems to be a kind of record of the anatomy of a mania and its aftermath. Chart attached. Note that this rally is remarkable, but tracking perfectly with even this extended stage. I would also say that the dow was the...

I take it, from your clear and entertaining sarcasm, that you feel the longer term picture is now so concretely bleak that a true period of organic and healthy expansion, even one that begins years from now, is difficult to imagine. I would only say that I'm sure this is another bullet point...

total classic. Also, it's absurb to try to systematize a livermore method. The whole point of what he has to offer from a learning standpoint is the subtle intuitive kind of observations. He may have postured himself as having a system of sorts. But anyone who's read, and re-read (and...

Gubinec, First of all, those guys are a-holes. totally. Ignore it and express what's on your mind. But, more to the point, I still hope you see the more important issue: if you feel convinced that "traders" are feeling the need to short, you could not possibly have a better edge on a...

Hi R.C, I thought about that. But I think the nominal is more interesting b/c that's where the patterned history is significant. It's the nominal changes that affect people. I have the real $ money version in xl, and the serial correlation just isn't the same. For example, look at the...

The broad equities rally that has taken place since March 6 is now the fastest 50% advance (26 weeks) for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1975, when the Dow shot 52% higher in just 22 weeks. At the time, that was the fastest such rally since early 1938, when the average moved 50.4% in a...

The ideas expressed by the starter of this thread are important only in that he seems to recognize the substance of this market, but to not be acting on it according to what works for more experienced traders. Namely that every little emotional stab to the downside should be read as follows...

Yes. That's awesome. Perfect real-time narrative of the heart of why simple opportunistic decisions become confused nauseating decisions when cost-basis is bad. Also perfect in fleshing out why capitulations happen, even though "everyone" knows they are opportunities.

Why are you two (traderzones and milimabuse) posting on this thread? Please stop. Your comments bear in no way on the subject, nor any other comments, in this thread.

I'm curious, John... I'm not sure what your complaint is. It seems like calls like the WFR call are good (looks like you have deleted that comment). But still, trying to get a feel for what you are looking for and what you feel has changed. I'm CHART, btw... Just looking for feedback. Thx

Hi steve, It is hugely customizable now. The main changes we made to the product were about filtering along a number of dimensions. B

One contradiction in there: The Nas2000 is in a particular stage on that chart still today. Unless the Nas and S&P completely diverge from one another this year, then either the Nas will not go sideways or slightly higher over the next couple yrs (as projected on that chart), or the S&P will...