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Yeah, my ears perked up when I heard that oil services were weak yesterday as it seemed odd with oil hitting $89. It would have made a lot more sense if they had been <i>up</i> 6.4%. It must just be some profit taking and, if the valuations are still good, the OSX will head north again...

Good luck with your trade, Realist! Keep in mind that the roll from Nov to Dec crude is already in progress and the last trading day for Nov is Monday. Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading

I'm thinking today was the blow-off top and tomorrow morning when the Turkish Parliament approves an Iraq invasion, we'll get a sell-off in a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction. I'm not too worried about that pipe line. It's in neither the Kurds nor the Turks interest to see it disrupted...

Yes, good point. A close below yesterday's close of $86.13 would be even more meaningful. Gold is doing the same thing -- spike overnight, off its high, could possibly close lower. The yen and the dollar are up -- return of the subprime slime fear. Last time the subprime slime hit...

Ah, good point!

:confused: Are you saying oil will go up because a long, cold winter will require a lot of heating oil? Or are you saying oil will go down because it will recouple with soft natural gas and gasoline prices?

Had no idea what a futures contract was until I went to work for Monroe Trout of The New Market Wizards fame in the mid-90's. Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading

For us there is withholding of 30% on interest income and no withholding on trading profits (i.e. capital gains).

If the crack spread gets any narrower, you'll see refiners mixing up heating oil and gasoline to get back to crude! :D Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading

I'm going to stick up for the NFA. They've always been helpful and responsive and my last NFA audit was professional and reasonable. Like any organization I'm sure there are better and worse employees and maybe you got the worse ones, but as a whole, the NFA is heaps better than having to...

Typing 20 numbers once a month doesn't seem like a whole lot of work. If you are concerned about errors, type them in twice and take the difference in Excel -- if you get any non-zero differences, then look for a typo in that account. Yes, I'm sure you can automate things using IB's flexible...

Most people would probably use Excel. Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading

Thanks, Blackguard, Stupididiot, Surf, PohPoh, ASusilovic, GTS, GC, Goy, Midas, pkts, and BJL! Thanks for making the point about diversification, GTS and Brandon. What an exciting, August, hey? I used to work in insurance, and trading, as you know, is a way more interesting profession...

Nah, there won't be a rate cut and the market will be satisfied with a change in the Fed statement from being predominantly concerned with inflation (in the June statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2007/20070628/) to a balanced concern between inflation and economic...

Where are the "black Monday" and "this is going to get ugly" posts? The number of those threads is my contrarian indicator of extreme short term pessimism and without them I really am worried about Monday.

Curious that crude is trading down on a huge drop in inventory. What do you make of it?

*laugh* That's what I was thinking. I just took some profits on some long T-notes and short EuroFX and was wondering if I would kick myself in the morning for not taking all my profits, or if I would kick myself in the morning for not letting the whole trade ride. In either case, I'm not...

See http://www.nfa.futures.org/registration/cpo.asp Good trading! Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading

Thanks, Atticus!

I'm not aware of anything IASG does to confirm the manager-reported performance results. Although, on the manager pages at IASG there is a link to download the manager's disclosure document and performance audit. You can see Schindler Trading's, for example, but Trendinvestor does not have...