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Actually, index ones do and can be traced (I don't recall the exact BBG function). Single names are bilateral, but you can get indicative runs and (more importantly), for the sake of assessing the credit health of a company bond spread should be just as good.

Like with everything in finance (from repo to HFT), there is no conspiracy or magic, but rather a very complex, detailed process. To have a complete picture of what's going on in that business, you'd have to work on a repo desk. To have a good clue, you can be a UST bond trader trading various...

I think you misunderstood me, I was not asking for a trade. It was a general question about the market sentiment from the perspective of an ordinary investor. It is very easy to get caught up in the intricate details of whatever trade you do and forget that the stock market is primarily intended...

Let's put hysteria and @dozu888 aside for a moment. A completely serious question - if you had cash on the sidelines right now, would you buy this market? A similar but a bit more complex question - if you had money in long bond (e.g. TLT), would you rotate them into equities?

I think you are making a false juxtaposition. Most successful traders make money by combining some form of numerical analysis with common sense. The weights on these two components vary and sophistication of each of these components varies as well. Simple statistics, linear regression, standard...

Definitely not seeing this on the Upper East Side. Kinda looks like business as usual all around.

I would not expect either realized nor VIX hitting 100+. 100 vol is over 6 per day for a sustained period of time. I think 2008 was a special case where disruptions to the market structure due to cross defaults were priced into the volatility markets. I doubt we’d see something like that again.

Btw, JPM issued a research note that was giving probability of recession based on the recent returns of different assets: 5 year note ~90% SPX ~50% Base metals ~60% IG credit ~40% HY credit ~30%

Sure. For the mild case, I assume that the epidemic stops in China and there are only economic effects to consider (ie no panic). Given the extent of the shutdowns, I am assuming negative growth in China for the rest of the year and translating that to a flat to mildly negative (basis points...

Oh, sorry, my bad. The missing variable is the leverage assumption, ie whats 1% of GDP worth in terms of stock market return. I am on a mobile so I can’t look it up but I recall it being around 5x (feels about right for the US at least - average equity return is 9-10%, average growth is about...

Forget about the sickness for a second and simply concentrate on the economic impact of the countermeasures. Various economists are projecting the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy from 5 to 8% of GDP. Best case scenario (and we are past that stage) is no other country does...

But you are going to take a tax hit every time the trade goes against you, right? Whenever your legs go the right way (IRA legs make money, taxable account loses money), you are taking a limited deduction in the taxable account and accumulated untaxed profits in the IRA. However, whenever the...

I think in real life you'd not be able to buy that many contracts as regulation SHO will trigger for the seller. As a random bit mental masturbation, it's interesting that the market impact of the physical delivery is against the short-delta participant regardless of the optionality. If you are...

Ok, so imagine that some client buys worthless calls for the full free float and magically they end up ITM for expiration. What do you think will happen? PS Things like that happen in commodity space and can be very scary

Bloomberg Terminal has indicative prices for all of these products. Actionable levels usually come from dealers, so you'd have to make friends first.

There is that. He's also really well connected with dealers, sometimes in shady ways. Notably, he does not do any index layoffs and I agree with him - anything like that is a horrible business.

Huh, what? You buy a straddle and hold across the NFP day. If the market moves more than what you paid, you make money. If the market moves less than what you paid for it, you lose money. No magic.

My guess would be about 35-60, at least given what I know about the flow he gets. I (and many others) wish I can get some of it, but the layoff propositions I get are mostly shit.

Random question - how on earth did you know this has a name?

It has been done a few times, very successful recipe!