Search results

Hmmm, weird, why not cover them, and then short again at the top??? :cool: Although, IMHO, we are close to the bottom, so the shorters who have been making some good $ might have to be very careful very soon. <b> The more shorts are still open, the more volatility we can expect IMHO. </b>...

Let me get this straight, you want a situation where there's a fair coin toss and if you guessed wrong you lose 100% of you bet, but if you got it right it gets doubled (or whatever asymmetry you might have in mind)? A toddler can understand you can make money in such a situation b/c the...

There's a Russian saying "mudraja myslya prikhodit oposlya" - the wise thought comes afterwards... :D

I hope you guys covered those shorts! :D

Hey man, save the cheap attacks on academicians! If it weren't for them, you'd still be looking at the stars to figure out what an option is worth! There have been other options around? Yeah, and I wonder who came up with them first! I bet someone with at least one PhD. Anyone knows that...

<i> Originally posted by dotslashfuture [/i] <b> my whole point is that you can control the amount you bet. Position sizing is not random, it is the one thing you can control every single time and it effects the outcome. </b> I said it was irrelevent, not unrandom. You can control it all...

I wasn't sure if you were using the coin flip as an exampe of smth else you had in mind and hence wasn't sure what distribution would be appropriate. As has already been correctly pointed out, the binomial distribution would be applicable for the coin toss example, and, since it's so cumbersome...

Not quite, the stock prices <b>are</b> and increasing function of time, believe it or not :-) and hence, are expected to rise on average. This expectation is, of course, more reliable in the long run.

That kind of depends on what distribution you assume and it's volatility parameter. The % of deviations should not be a function of the sample size. The stability of that estimate - should certainly be, but not the %-tage itself. Hope this helps.

I don't believe your explanation is accurate, with all due respect, unless I misunderstood something. If the probability of an upward move is equal to that of a downward move - say 50/50 if we ignore the case of no move at all (and if there is no reason to believe the moves in one direction...

If I remember my stats correctly, one over root n is the rate at which the sample estimate converges to the population parameter.

Check out: Beyond Greed and Fear: Finance and the Psychology of Investing by Hersh Shefrin Most people tend to have that fallacy (the book gives some example of financial experts making similar adjustments in expectations). The law of large numbers doesn't quite work in small samples. If...

Hi guys, I'm starting to collect level II data (about once every 5 minutes for MSFT), and plan to econometrically compare the regimes prior to SuperMontage and post it's implementation - looking for evidence of changes in liquidity/costs, MM tactics etc. Since about 99% of you have traded...

I personally find it helpful to think that the party on the other side doesn't need this money as much (e.g. an MM or the specialist :D) or would not use it for a cause as worthy as what I hope to use it for in the end... Or I think that that person still made/will make some money on the trade...

I agree with what you said entirely, but I guess it's just human nature... I think it takes some getting used to, and since I'm only strating out, there is hope for me yet :-) My trading did have a plan, and it worked in that situation even better than it was supposed to. But then the...

Hi guys, just wanted to see if any of you had any ideas for situations where you take a position, everything goes the way you predicted, you exit, reap a substantial reward... only to see those stocks soar 30% more on the next 5 minutes!!! I was so happy to get a 10% today, but I guess I...

If you know how to get them to show up in Excel (I don't), then it shouldn't be hard to code a macro to save the sheet at the frequency you specify. If you show me how to get Level II data feed to Excel, I'll write the program and share it with you :)

B/c then I can easily record a macro to periodically save that info, say, once every 30 seconds for the analysis I want to do.:cool:

Sure.