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    China Threatens To Trigger Us Dollar Crash

    There has been some heated rhetoric regarding China's international economic policies the last few years. This is just rhetoric though; it is neither in China's interests nor the US's to act on increasing trade barriers. All three Democratic President candidate front-runners said they would...
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    Tiny Hedge Fund Startup Questions

    Btw this is exactly the route I've taken for now. It will take another couple of months just in paperwork waiting for the appropriate accounts to be opened, transfer funds, etc, but is fairly simple and cheap (1k/year). One other question (this is down the road), is it standard to have...
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    is this the pop (explosion?)

    Those numbers are just about identical to my place that I'm renting in Westwood (Los Angeles) right now for $2,200/month (a 2 bed / 2 bath apartment). Comparable units next door to me are selling right now for $550,000. A $0 down 30-year fixed loan is around $3400/month in P+I (let's...
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    what do you think of china's future?

    I believe it is highly likely that China's citizens will continue to experience real wage and standard of living growth in the top quintile of all countries for at least several more decades. This is due to enlightened economic policy, including but not limited to these critical areas: -...
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    Confidence intervals in strategy performance

    I think some of these tools can be very helpful. That said let me add some other thoughts as well (I know this is a bit contradictory). In some cases I think it can be misleading to focus more precisely on some of these numbers. Particularly since key variables cannot accurately be...
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    Programming + Trading = career path ?

    The wage effect on US programmers from China + Indian competition is minimal. Wages in Los Angeles for programmers are up 30% or so from just a few years ago and are higher even adjusting for inflation than during the tech bubble. Programmer wage growth is still just as strong today as it was...
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    Tiny Hedge Fund Startup Questions

    I'm still researching these issues. I spoke with several accounting firms, so far they have all seemed very professional. Here are various cost scenarios (very rough approximates only, in many cases quotes were given to me in a wide range): Initial formation: $5000 one time expense...
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    Soros, ignorant in economic theory?

    These are some great points but I think you are mixing two different but related concepts. One is the current account surplus/deficit between countries, the other is differences in savings rate. Tied in with this is how the savings is invested: domestically (internally) or internationally...
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    Tiny Hedge Fund Startup Questions

    Thanks for the info-- I'll look into it in more detail but that appears very promising at first glance. -Taric
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    Tiny Hedge Fund Startup Questions

    That is way too much leverage for most strategies-- including mine. In most cases even 10:1 is too excessive in terms of severe drawdown risk, at least for unhedged multi-day directional position trading. -Taric
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    Tiny Hedge Fund Startup Questions

    Isn't this true with any fund that is trying to substantially increase its assets? Let's say you have a $50 million fund. One could say the fund may not scale up to a $500 million fund without encountering some difficulty. The main argument I see against starting small is you are paying...
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    Tiny Hedge Fund Startup Questions

    I am researching starting a tiny hedge fund. Initial AOM would be just my contribution of 50k. While low, that is high enough to list on a few of the databases for performance after 1 year of audits. This is exclusively trading spot forex with an average hold time per trade of 3 days. The...
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    Are you a programmer (poll)

    That is an amazing story. You were at ground-0 in one of the most pivotal corporate battles in history (Apple vs Microsoft). One person really can make a difference and see some excitement if they are in the right place at the right time. 1. I started with Atari-400 Basic for fun around...
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    Sharing Automated Trading System Design or Code?

    Btw nononsense, I took your advice and and looked into Python a month ago finally. I totally agree with you now, it is an incredible language and I am now using it as my language of choice. For speed reasons, I can see how some applications would require compiled languages like C++...
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    Greenspan the Master.

    IMO, the main problem is that the US Federal Reserve uses Consumer Prices (and not even some important ones like oil and food) as its primary definition of inflation, same with using rent without house prices even though homeownership is around 70%. What I would do is measure true inflation...
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    The Surf Report

    Thanks for the advice. Yeah, alchohol doesn't give me headaches, but I can tell that even in small amounts it isn't good for me. I enjoy it too much to entirely cut it though, but I'm trying to at least sharply reduce it. Is milk really that unhealthy? I've read things both ways on milk...
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    The Surf Report

    Wow. That is sort of the diet I've been trying for though I'm not in hardcore mode. I've went from 5'11 190 pounds to 170 pounds the last year and a half. But my body fat is still pretty bad at 22%. I eat greens, nuts, lean turkey, whey protein powder mixed into nonfat organic milk (what...
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    POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

    A couple notes in no particular order on various topics: - I got some PMs on questions from the last chart on the software etc. First it is Multicharts with IB, and yes I like the combination quite a bit. However I think they are raising their prices from $400 to much higher soon once the...
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    POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

    Hehe I was just testing you :) Sorry, I should of put in a note, the exit is not according to PL's method. I'm using a modified profit target instead of waiting for confirmed failure of the trend for various reasons though I probably need to change it back to as it was designed to be.. I...
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    POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

    Today's chart is attached. Happy Thanksgiving! -Taric
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