Search results

In January 2007, I created a SMLLC (single-member LLC) for purposes of building a track record, vested with a small amount of my personal funds. It is likely to remain just a single member entity (no partners) for at least a few more years. Just to reduce the pain of tax preparation this...

First I want to echo the thoughts that it is ridiculous that some people are trying to defame the character of those people that are providing their trading methodologies for free such as Jack Hershey and Spydertrader. Worst case scenario: Jack Hershey's methods have zero edge and thus is...

Just wanted to send a huge thanks out to JH, Spydertrader, and really everyone here. Thanks so much for sharing. I'm personally involved in several projects that are taking quite a bit of time, so I haven't spent as much time learning this method as I would like to. Obviously, I hope that...

I'm considering using these.. curious about the following: a) not that this applies to me in the slightest now, how is scalability? Can these support $10 million or higher easily? By easily of course I would expect worse transaction costs, but would these be substantially worse than the...

Yup. Admittedly I was fooled myself, and had to resort to cheating. I tested the hypothesis empirically, and when I found I was wrong (switching was 2/3 instead of 50%), I tried to work backwards and figure out it. Even knowing I was wrong, it took me some time to get through the problem...

Sorry I have to agree with GTS and sjfan on this. There is just one possible answer. 1/3 if you choose the original, 2/3 if you switch. Anything else is absolutely incorrect. You can do this test with a cup and coin and friend 30 times each way (choosing the original, versus choosing to...

I have to say I was initially fooled and thought the probability was 50% regardless of if you switched or not, after the new information (of a cup being removing, knowing that that particular cup did not have the coin). I clicked on the link to play the game and still didn't understand it for a...

I think true inflation (and by that I mean take the median person according to average income in the US and look at the dollar weighted prices of the product and services they consume) is higher than the official 2% or so rate. I'm not sure how much higher, but some large components seem to be...

Yes, strongly.

I just want to say what makes these points so contentious is a combination of a) the work involved is very tedious and challenging, so naturally (regardless of validity) very few will explore it in enough depth to give it a chance b) it is hard to prove something without going down the path...

Great article, very well written. Thanks for the link! Just after is was published, another major even unfolded: the carry trade (AUD/JPY) crashed. I would love to see his take on that, more on the global risk premium, and also analysis on the USD currency's recent behavior.

That is like asking, to build a car, are brakes all you need? It is essential, but insufficient. You still need an engine (edge) and other components.

The hedge fund industry, and quantitative analysis are still very much intact, imo. As to the former, it is still in the early stages of a typical S type curve of a strongly growing, emerging industry, as it is becoming conventional wisdom among institutional asset managers to use hedge...

Much as I disagree with the Fed for keeping inflation a bit too high, I think the root causes of most economic problems in the US stem from poor design of fiscal and domestic policies. These include: government budget deficits, inefficient taxation, inefficient social spending (eg health care...

I plan on buying the book, though more for entertainment than other aspects. (No offense to Tim, it's just our styles are different). Good luck and thanks for sharing your experiences.

I think the Chinese economy as a whole (real GDP, real wages) will most likely continue to skyrocket for decades. Even if reforms slow down, what they already have in place is pretty impressive and they should continue to narrow the wealth gap over time. On the other hand, the Chinese stock...

The government only has the power to affect some variables, not all variables at all times. Eg, you can inject billions into the financial system, (perhaps this is a positive for stability), but cause greater inflation (perhaps causing a relative drop in real wages, depending on if the...

I agree overall in terms of money supply and inflation. While there are various factors, money supply is huge. In fact I will say I disagree with a majority of economists that the Great Depression was primarily a monetary failure. I profoundly disagree; I think the Fed could of reduced...

I'm not quite following, but I would add another extremely important point to note that I left out for simplicity in my previous post. If outstanding short term liabilities are $2.5 trillion, you only need to pay the interest and part of the principal payment for it to remain in good status...

This is sort of an apples to oranges comparison and not necessarily useful in regards of what you are attempting to compute which is risk of ruin due to default (inability to pay of debt) at the national level. One of the central problems is there are many other significant assets and...