Search results

My goal of course is to make more than I lose on this block of trades. If AAPL goes to 700 or above before January 18th, and stays there through April 19th, I'll win on all of them. If AAPL stays at 580 or below through April 19th, I'll lose on all of them. But it will probably be much...

I like that kind of talk. The upcoming post-election/pre-fiscal cliff time period should be quite interesting... :)

Just put up a Journal of my current AAPL trades. Wish me luck, because I might need it! :)

11/02/12 Chart

AAPL Trades (09/18/12-04/19/13) Total Margin: $25,000.00 (50 contracts) Total Max Loss: $11,140.00 Total Max Credit: $13,860.00 - $150.00 commissions = $13,710.00 Total Max Gain: 123.07% over 7 months 8 Jan 700/695 Bull Put Spreads 2 Feb 700/695 Bull Put Spreads 13 Apr 700/695 Bull...

Whoa! Give me some time to study all this!!! :eek:

Not quite sure what you mean here. I believe in the laws of physics and the scientific method, etc. But trading gets into the area of statistics. Aren't they different worlds? :)

Don't think it could ever be an exact science, because it's about probabilities, not about certainties. You could just guess "Up", "Down", or "Sideways" for every stock you trade, without regard to technicals or fundamentals I suppose. How well that would work I don't know. Certainly...

Trading is a form of "gambling", so the word "guarantee" does not apply. "Guessing" implies coin flipping decisions, which also doesn't apply. But you can put the odds in your favor if you trade correctly. If this weren't true, there wouldn't be traders who consistently win more than they...

For opposite points of view, this is almost as good as the Election! Of course no one "knows" what's gonna happen with AAPL over the next 6 months or so (unless they have a Time Machine), but we'll be finding out soon enough who's called it right. Is it AAPL at 700+? or is it AAPL at 500-...

Trading is trying to predict the future, and placing a bet on what will happen. Without a Time Machine it's impossible to "know" what will happen in the future - unless you have "inside information" about an upcoming event. So all one can do is choose what is "most likely" to happen, based on...

It is concentrated, yes. I'm one of those thinking AAPL is a special situation right now. THE leading growth stock everyone talks about - with a low PE, no debt, and a dividend. How long its "glory days" will continue remains to be seen. All my other positions are much smaller, around 2%...

Assuming the AAPL uptrend continues, my latest bets are pretty safe I think. On Friday I sold 580/575 Bull Put Spreads for credits of $2.52 (at 581.80) and $2.62 (at 574.96). So if AAPL is at 580 or higher next April, I'll net 100.40% and 108.82% respectively on those trades. I don't...

It all comes down to IFs I guess. The pattern (Uptrend with Bull Flag buy points) has been established, and the higher probability is for it to continue. Of course there are no guarantees... :)

Will you go long at 550?

Still see it as an orderly pullback (now at -18.48%), and the long term uptrend remains in place. Still think we'll have a post election/Xmas rally, and the funds will pile back into AAPL at bargain prices. Call me any names you want, and I know all about "falling knives", etc. Added to the...

When I show a daily chart I use the 200 day MA, and when I show a weekly chart I use the 40 wk MA. They're considered almost equivalent (40 X 5 days per wk = 200). :)

This whole game is nothing but danger! :eek:

November-April Rally: 361.77 to 641.25 = +77.25% April-May Pullback: 641.25 to 519.95 = -18.92% May-September Rally: 519.95 to 705.07 = +35.60% September-November Pullback: 705.07 to 587.70= -16.65% November-April Rally? [+77.25% = 1041.70] [+35.60% = 796.92] :eek:

"Will Apple's Products Cause Speculative Stock Valuation?" http://seekingalpha.com/article/968381-will-apple-s-products-cause-speculative-stock-valuation :cool: