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COT index: If you look at the 5 years long chart of Rough Rice that I posted yesterday, you can see two purple horizontal lines. These are boundaries of Commercials positions, their most extreme net short level (0%) and most extreme net long level (100%) (in this 5 years range / lines placed to...

You are welcome! I would say that Large Speculators are the ones, who lead the trend in prices, but Commercials, who are on the rights side, when the shift/turn happens. If you are new to cot analysis, one of the first things you need to learn is that each and every market has its own...

I have attached here the 1yr chart also, indicating to you the "other story" :) I hope now it is clear, what I was trying to say. all the best, Dunstan

Hi tallent e, Maybe the attached chart will help. I have indicated the cot index (based on a 5 year lookback period) for Commercials. They are at 81%, which is an extreme level. You don’t see that if you look at a one year chart, all you see is that the last three times, when both C &...

Hi tallent e, What I wanted to say is that the two time frames are telling different stories --> the shorter one (1 yr) is showing a bearish picture, but the longer one a bullish. I hope I could somehow help you. If you are new to the report, check out some of my earlier posts, where I...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Rough Rice COT Change (52W) / C-40%, LS-56% / COT Index (5 year lb.) / C-81%, LS-18%, SS-35% / I can’t agree with the review this time. Thomas didn’t look at the 5-year chart, which tells us a very...

If that's the case, I wouldn't bother considering ETFs... The aswer to your q: there is no direct cost to that. Since ETFs are correlating with the continues chart of the underlying futures market, anything that is priced in there naturally affects ETF pricing.

There are basically four different kinds of ETFs: 1:1 --> If the underlying falls (or rises) by 1% in a day, the ETF will fall (or rise) by 1% -1:1 --> If the underlying falls (or rises) by 1% in a day, the ETF will rise (or fall) by 1% 2:1 --> If the underlying falls (or rises) by 1% in a...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Canadian Dollar COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-17%, SS-67% / Both signals, the large cot change and the extreme that we are getting closer to are bullish signals that suggest to me, we could expect higher prices in the...

It’s not that complicated to buy futures on Sugar (you pay the commision for the broker and of course you need enough margin to keep the position) but of course options are also a possibility. I don’t know how liquid the option market is in Sugar right now, but two very simple...

Sugar's long term picture now looks bullish. If you look carefully, you can see that it's one of those rare occasions, when Commercials and Large Specs are on the same side --> only Small Specs are Pessimistic about the market = they think it will further decline. If you look at the historical...

Not commercial capitalization, but commercial capitulation. Here is what I wrote about it on the third page / second post of this thread: “ The last interesting signal I would like to show you, is actually relatively new to me as well, I’ve read it here, the so called...

You are absolutely right that the cot extreme we had in Yen not long ago did not trigger a rally, but if you read through my earlier notes in the thread, you will find an explanation on the so called “Commercial Capitulation” that happens rarely. I guess this is what has happened in...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Live Cattle COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-31%, SS-20% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-77%, LS-10%, SS-100% / COT Extreme / SS-387 report COT extreme / All cot signals have a bullish bias this week. The change in...

Hi George, I’m also a subscriber and quite satisfied with the service until now. If you really want to know what you get as a subscriber, I recommend you to watch this video: How to use COTbase.com? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w7ApHgX3dc) since it shows you all the features of the...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Coffee COT Change (52W) / C-28%, LS-27% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-77%, LS-24%, SS-60% / The change and the relative cot extreme (looking at a 1-1,5 year period) suggest a price decline. On the other hand, if we open...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C-27%, LS-31% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-68%, LS-25%, SS-61% / The change size this week was greater than the previous week, we are moving away with large steps from the last cot...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C-16%, LS-13%, SS-23% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-49%, LS-49%, SS-62% / The relative cot extreme signal from two weeks ago that started this latest price decline is in my opinion still...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Cotton COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-26%, SS-30% / As Commercials are increasing their net short positions cotton prices start to incline – at least if we look at the past similar situations. Palladium COT...

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). Copper COT Change (52W) / C-21%, SS-32% / If we look at the 5 year chart of Copper, we can see that we don’t really have a clearly large COT extreme in the market. It is mainly the change size that could affect...