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I am doing basic research. I do trade my own account, global macro analysis with a simple trend following overlay. Fundamental factors drive the prices, and technical analysis can aid in making short term trading decisions (at least that is the hypothesis I am testing.) I am very much a...

Agreed. If the stock market in the short run is just a standard normal distribution why not just enter random trades, cut losses quickly and let profits run?

Thank you very much. In a standard normal distribution, 68.3% of the observations will be within one standard deviation of the mean.... is the short term stock market just a standard normal distribution?

I am working on a little project here. The basic issue is: how useful are these patterns? Overview: I am defining a bearish engulfing reversal as the current open being greater than the previous close, and the current close less than the previous open. I am only considering these in markets...

Yea, only $3000. Because if it works, like xandman alluded to, why would they not be starting a hedge fund which uses this tech? That would make a lot more than peddling software. Or market the tech to existing hedge funds and trading firms? They would pay more. 3K is infinitesimally small in...

Has anyone every heard of this? The idea of this sort of adaptive software is interesting, and from my research Mendelsohn seems legit. The obvious question is "does it work," and the derivative question is; if it does work, then why is it selling for a measly $3000...

That sounds like an excellent list. I will try to track them down. I am getting the general idea that you are suggesting that going to the horse's mouth is the best route. So Frost and Prechter would not be recommended in regards to Elliot?

Thanks for the great reply. I started with the CMT stuff mainly because it seems to be an unbiased source for a list of materials to start studying technical analysis. Edwards and Magee was on the top of the list, so I've started there. What you said about behavioral dynamics and patterns is...

smallStops: Thank you for having something coherent to day that does not blame all problems on the Fed and HFTs. Sincerely, me.

Good job noticing that the chart was from 2010. Good "prediction." Go play some golf or something relaxing.

The Dow in completely doomed. The neckline is around 8,000, top of head is around 14,000, which would put the minimum price target at 2000. I jest. No worries, the pattern failed, this chart goes to 2010. But seriously, what part of this is not legit? I am just starting to work on my CMT...

Here is a clip from The Alchemy of Finance: "...the Federal Reserve announced a large increase in M1; the increase in M3 was more moderate...I am now willing to bet that the slowdown in the economy is going to deteriorate into a recession: the contraction in credit is going to outweigh the...

Only 9%?!?! If that is net of the spread and other transaction costs, that is a freaking killing man... if you can turn over a few as five BTC per day that is a lot of money... Try finding arb opportunity like that in the "real" world...

Thin liquidity is definetly something I considered, but I feel like I could get around that by validating that an adequate bid/offer even exists on the books before making the trade. That would also re emphasize the importance of speed of transaction between markets... so that I could be able to...

How did they "get stuck" exactly? Why would someone not be able to withdraw cash from MTGOX?

http://bitcoin-analytics.com/ Look for the Arbitrage tab to see a table depicting prices between different BTC exchanges this site makes the arb opp so obvious that I have to wonder why it even exists. The MTGOX/CBX spread is routinely ten percent... with price differentials like that...

Interesting, I have not considered that issue yet. Something I am still unsure of is how to quickly transfer BTC from one exchange to another...

Anyone doing this? Seems like there are wide spreads, especially between MTGOX and others...

Because the futures are forward contracts, right. Thanks

would not have to, just assume that the two prices must eventually equal eachother. Perhaps I am using the word arbitrage loosely.