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Icebergs are tricky buggers. Think about it this way... If price is oscillating upward and slowing in momentum and you want to iceberg the market... You estimate the market liquidity vs how big of a position you want to establish. Then you decide where to start iceberging the market. If...

Anyone analyzed the fundamentals of that company? If they happen to go under in the next couple years I may launch another social gaming company for fun. The copycatting in the industry is frigging annoying as hell... Zynga also has a lot of the best talent locked up by their monopoly...

Uncertain uncertainty creates certain certainty!!! Wall street went on a professional gambler hiring spree a few years back. A lot of pro traders came from backgrounds of card games and blackjack stables. Some pro's even use to run card counting rings back in the day until they got booted...

I have and interesting observation and was curious if you would care to comment. I have been calculating out probabilities a lot lately and have noticed something... When there is a high probability of a certain event happening... Eg, like when we touched new highs today. I calculated out the...

So, let me re-word my SPX daily analysis down to pure probabilities lingo. "The probability that the S&P 500 dips below the highs of today toward late week is very high, however the probability of a sufficiently profitable dip is so low that the trade isn't worthwhile. Then there is also a...

I changed my signals to dots because the way I have always been using them is as probabilities... Like during this high speed uptrend into this year... The larger the dot during the uptrend the higher the probability of a forward dip. Enough pros have the probabilities calculated out so a lot...

Did I claim the idea was original? No. I just realized that the difference between me and others was I was using technicals for analyzing odds of events occurring... I have never bought/sold off stupid technical signals like crossovers ever. I only buy/sell places that are high odds...

Now, lets calculate out some quick odds on the S&P bigger picture so you guys understand why the pro's are so complacent... Lets assume that the market behavior since 2004 is the norm. What are the statistical odds of a reversal provided the market locks in a double engulfing reversal...

Here is an example of why I am not bothering to watch the S&P right now... Probability states that at our current trend speed of 15.69 and steady 10 day trend acceleration rate of 7.27... That the market will not break for multiple cycles. The odds of playing short trades is very low until...

Probabilities are governed by more than the number of bars in a trend. They are also governed by the price cycle alignment, and the trend speed of the market which can be analyzed with MACD. Thee three core elements if you want precision probability... 1. Candle Count 2. Cycle Alignment...

Here is an example on the euro. The odds of a cycle turning on the 120m are extremely low for a reversal within 3 candles. With a lower high or lower low the odds are low even for a reversal at five candles. Once you pass above six the odds of reversal are VERY high. Provided the euro...

Nobody is actually bothering to trade equities right now I hope... I'm trading the EUR/USD lately. Lots of good action there... Just sideways glancing at the indices every day to see if activity is picking up yet. The A team isn't going to be back from the hamptons unless something happens. I...

Does anyone know any good books or forums on odds and statistics? Instead of just having a feel for statistics and roughly calculating them out I want the exact numbers. Not satisfied with "If we have an engulfing reversal off of low prices, the odds are we will go up for month after month...

I primarily do statistical analysis of technical indicators rather than technical analysis. Mostly just calculated out in my head off indicator numbers and price levels instead of exactly precisely. That is probably why everyone fails at technical analysis... They don't do statistical...

If your having trouble with short term automated system you should instead apply them to the daily/weekly OHLC data. Things are much more predictable and reliable on the longer timeframes... The only issue is that raises black swan risk.

So, glancing at the current chart... What does this indicator tell us? It tells us that the current trend speed is 14 points per 10 days. Current trend speed acceleration tells us that in ten days the trend speed is going to be 21.14. However, that is a low estimate because of the way I use...

All indicators you develop should have math that is easily understandable that you can cross check to your chart to make sure everything is correct. In a non cyclic market all that has to be done on my very bottom indicator to estimate the trend speed ten days forward in time is to take the...

You have to use different strategies in different sessions. The market behavior in FX changes at 19:00 when NZ/AUS activity starts. Real easy session. Big moves begin around 3:00 EST when EU session opens, and more big moves happen around 9:30EST when US session opens. Trend changes and...

Were very low on fuel with VIX being this low, but don't get too hasty with your shorts yet. There are a lot of hedge funds and big players not in this market. If Ben Bernanke announces a new easing program at the end of the month they may all get sucked in and then we will be set up for a...

Yes, I have the exact same results in equities with non-discretionary system trading... Long setups work reliably, short setups don't... The math is a little different when the market is falling.