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Obviously after the last test this daytrader would know that with him winning 80% of the time and having a higher win size than loss size he'd be rich in record time. He'd now know that he has more than a 99% chance of making a profit each and every day he trades. What do think his psychology...

How about if he increases the winning percent to 80% and keeps the expectancy at $400, so that each win now becomes $600 and each loss now becomes $400.

Now what happens if that daytrader decides he wants 95% level of confidence so that he'll accpect one losing day per month. What changes would he make? If he doubles his expectation does that help? As you can see from this run, he still only has about 80% confidence level with double the...

Ok, now you have a timeframe for being consistently profitable. Now what does it take to achieve it? One more decision has to be made before continuing. What level of confidence do I need for consistent profitability. Some will be happy with 90%, others 95%, and some like me require 99%. So, to...

I hope you guys aren't offended if I ignore your questions for now. I'd like to spend my limited time posting some new info. from my notes to get things started. For the first topic, I tought I'd post on some work in the area of consistency. Any serious trader knows they are responble not...

I went back and looked at the program to see exactly how it works. What I'm doing is loading a table of z scores for all values from .5 to 99.5 in .5 increments. For example, the z score value at 51.0 I'm using is .025. Then the program randomizes both the % win based on the win percentage input...

I've only had one method die a quick death. I attributed that to a book that explained the edge. The few that I've stopped trading were because of major market changes such as the continuing decline in volatility of the SP/ES markets. I developed the edge test to see the deterioration coming and...

This thread is about the process of developing systems/methods and the detail that surrounds them. I've been semi-retired for about three years now. I'm now 48 and the older I get, the less desire I seem to have doing trading related work. At this point I have about six looseleaf notebooks...

I'll start a Journal called "System Development" to discuss these kinds of topics. I don't want to continue off topic in other people's threads.

The basic formula for determining the outcome of a trade is: Outcome = Mean + (Zscore * Std. Dev.) To find the max. DD all you do is load up all the trades for the test and measure peak to valley equity for each pass. For this tool, 10,000 runs of 120 trades each were done. No Monte...

Here's a example using my prod5 for one year of expected trades for 1 SP contract. Notice at the 50% level, the expected outcome is more than 13x the expected Max DD. Even at the 99% MAX DD level it's still over 5x the 50% level outcome. Knowing there is more than a 99% chance of making money...

Drawdown is a function of: win % average size of win average size of loss std. dev. of winning trades std. dev. of losing trades If you are willing to post the win%, ave. size of win, and ave. size of loss then I'll post a probability map showing you what to expect. For my trading I...

The normal stats are useful to see if you would be comfortable trading the system. To me the only truely useful stat is how much better than random the trades captured by the system are and whether the relationship is stable through time. If not, it's all a curve fit exercise guaranteed to bring...

What I posted was the cumulative percentages by time the high and low were complete within the trading day for each year. A number such as 50 would mean 50% of the time the high and low for the day were complete for that year by that time.

Here's the time of day that the high and low are completed for the NQ since 2001.

It's 24.6 for this year (through yesterday) versus 26.1 for all of last year.

Pinnacle is ok but nothing spectacular. The volume data seems totally wrong from checks with other sources I've done. The data itself isn't the raw data so if you plan on using it in real trading you'll be disappointed. Since it comes as continuous contracts there's no planning for rollovers and...

1107.50 at close

Thanks for taking the time to write such an extensive reply. I had hoped it would be pretty easy. I had done a VR walkthrough of my home I'm having built and was impressed. For trading all I need is 800x600 on each screen and a way to have two levels of three screens each. The VR component is...

I want to check out replacing monitors with VR goggles. Does anyone know of any links to goggles with multiple monitor support (6)?