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It's 100% gambling and if you trade you are a gambler. There's uncertainty. Poker players are all gamblers too. It's gambling with positive expectation, for a small percentage, perhaps :).

I thought he was actually being helpful in the thread. Perhaps with a bit of fun aggression, :), but I thought helpful comments.

Oh right! You have that risk as well: authenticity. Great point! Yah, I don't get the interest.

I know not your question, but an easy work around would be a vertical with one leg far out of the money. For ES there would be sufficient liquidity, but if you want to do this for ultra short time frames, I see how the increase in transaction price could be an issue.

Interesting. The liquidity issue itself (not to mention storage and concerns of theft or loss) is enough to offset 1% discount. I don't get the interest. Do people not understand you can easily get the same exposure via financial markets for less risk and with full liquidity? Cool article...

I used to live by an Amazon Fresh and I loved it. You just put food in the cart and walked out at the end. It was that simple. There are hundreds of cameras in the store that track what you are putting in your cart. It was so quick and so easy.

Thanks so much. Given you offer PL options, I will definitely look into getting an account.

Hi All, I know IBKR and TDA do not allow future option trading on platinum and palladium. Is anyone aware of where the options can be traded? Not sure there is even any price discovery, but would be interested in potentially trading options if there is. My 2nd question is related to palladium...

I think you need to go into settings in the main portal and check the permissions you want. That's my recollection anyway.

Curious, did you ever get this resolved?

Keeping an exact match on notional is a very different question than which does/does not include dividends. If you want near zero risk, you will have to figure out exact notional throughout time. Most ETFs likely reinvest the dividends, if not all I'd think, but I have no idea so you should look...

Ehhh....successful hedge fund?? What is that?

Futures are higher in cost than it's equity equivalent due to leverage (risk free rate), treatment of dividends, cost of storage, cost of insurance. For equities the futures price is higher due to risk free rate as you mention, minus the fact dividends are paid out. In theory, assuming no...

Didn't read other posts so probably others said the same, but you need to backtest for like 10 years to have any understanding of expected profit and risk. There's a misunderstanding around sample size when it comes to short time frames. The diffferent personality of markets has to be tested...

Answer: Sample Size

That's a lot of commission to pay for only 3k notional and not being a long term investment. I don't get how there would be much demand.

The issue I have is that it sounds like you are not giving her well-rounded advice. There's no simple solution that works for each person. Based on her age, her net worth, rick profile, what she plans to do with remaining years, SS income, other income, inheritances, liquidity profile, etc., you...

Support and resistance work well with many futures, don't know about stocks, as I don't follow them. It's extremely rare that a support line or resistance line is broken in futures and I'm surprised it just keeps moving in the same direction. I'd guess around 5% of the time I'm surprised. The...

If you are looking for a second derivative, then vomma could be it. Vomma calculates the percentage change of vega for each percentage change in implied volatility. There's a third derivative too.

There's a significant amount of luck in trading. What keeps people trading is that almost everyone, especially "profitable traders" overestimate their actual edge. I like what Sklansky said about poker: gambling with a positive expectation. I'd say gambling with a positive expectation for a...